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US Extended Forecast thru Feb 22

Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
1253 Am Est Sat Feb 15 2014
Valid 12z Tue Feb 18 2014 - 12z Sat Feb 22 2014

The Current Wintry Pattern In The East Is About To Lift As Strong Zonal Flow Establishes Itself Across The Nation.

One Parting Round Of Frozen Precipitation Is Expected To Affect Portions Of The Mid Atlantic And Northeast Day 3 With The Advent Of A Wave Crossing The Great Lakes.

Thereafter, Expect A Marked Rebound In Heights East Of The Rockies, With A Deep Cyclone Pulling North Of The Great Lakes Mid Period.

Used An Even Blend Of The 12z/14 Ecmwf And Ecens Mean For This Package--The Heavy Incorporation Of The Deterministic Ecmwf To Give The System Pulling Into Southeastern Canada After Day 5 Some Realistic Gradient.

The European Centre Guidance Tells The Tale The Best, And Has Shown The Most Consistent Signal Of The Global Models As A Whole Over The Past Three Data Cycles.

With The Door Open To True Subtropical Air Over Much Of The South
And East This Period, Expect Temperatures And Dew Points To Go Way Above Normal.

Anomalies Of 20 To 30+ Fahrenheit Should Spread From Eastern Texas, Across The Gulf States, Then Up The Appalachians And Atlantic Coast States By The End Of The Period.

The Warm Air Should Prove Quite The Sharp Contrast To The Ice, Snow, And Cold Of Late.

As The Flow Begins To Buckle Upstream Day 6, A New Cyclone Will Tap The Warm, Juicy Air Off The Gulf Of Mexico, With Soaking Convection Blooming Ahead Of The Cold Front From Northern
Louisiana To Eastern Tennessee.

Snow Is Expected In On The Cold Side Of The Primary Surface Low Lifting Through The Upper Midwest.

The Onslaught Of Pacific Moisture Into The Northwest Continues
Through At Least Day 6, With More Low-Elevation Rains And High
Country Snows.

The Aforementioned Amplification--In This Case A Full-Latitude Ridge--Should Do Two Big Things:

First, It Will Shut Off The Excess Moisture Into The Northwest.

Second, It Should Act In Tandem With A Rotation Of The Cross-Polar Vortex To Begin To Deliver Arctic Air Into The North Central States.

The Long-Range Models Have Been Showing This Reamplification For A While Now, Revealing The Warm-Up For Much Of The Nation As A "False Spring."


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