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US Extended Forecast thru Feb 16

...An Active/Wet Northwest Conus And Downstream Sern/Ern Us Winter Coastal Low Threats...

...Overview And Preferences...

Medium Range Forecast Focus Across The Pacific Northwest And
Northern Rockies...Will Be With A A Series Of Moderate To Strong
Pacific Fronts And Their Well-Defined Warm Fronts Migrating At
Low-Amplitude Into The Northern Plains.

The Wpc Graphics Separate The Fronts By About 24 Hours...With The Cold Fronts Passing Inland Across The Cascades Day 4 And Day 6.

The 9/06z Gefs And 9/00z Ecens Means Were Reasonable At The Surface And Aloft...And The Deterministic 9/06z Gfs Created Too Much Amplification Along 140w At/Beyond Day 5 To Be Of Much Use In What Otherwise Is A Progressive Westerly Wave Train With The Means Solidly In Agreement For A Broad Vortex Anchoring In The Northwest Gulf Of Alaska.

The Westerly Flow Is Beginning To Get Some Definition With The Primary Wave Development...But Downstream East Of The Divide... The Impacts Associated With The Mid-Level Warm Fronts...Seem To Lack Sufficient Moisture From I-80 Southward This Period... But There Should Be Decent Bursts Of Downslope Winds To Deal With Across The Northern And Central High Plains

This Includes Some Heavy Coastal And Especially Terrain Enhanced Pcpn/Snows From Wrn Wa/Or To Nrn Ca With Decreasing Precipitation Amounts Inland Over The Nwrn Us Quarter Of The Nation...Albeit With Enhanced Local Terrain Maximas Across The N-Central Great Basin/Rockies.

Downwind Of The Mississippi...The Low-Amplitude Nature Of The
Pacific Waves Migrating Towards The East Coast Gradually Shears
Out The Impacts Of The Persistent Canadian Airmass...And Again...A
9/06z Gefs Mean And 9/00z Ecens Compromise Will Generally Capture The Prevailing Mid-Level Storm Track From The Western Ohio Valley Eastward Into The Carolinas And Off The Outer Banks And Delmarva After Day 5.

Prior To Day 5...The Pacific Influence Will Be Faint...At Best With Several Unrelated Southern Stream Waves Ejecting Across The Base Of The Upper-Level Trough In The Eastern Us...And Generally Tracking Up The Eastern Seaboard.

The Inland Translation Of Pacific And Nrn Stream Shortwaves Leads
Into Emerging Central To Ern Us Winter Low Threats.

The Details Of Srn Stream Systems Aloft And Any Eventual Nrn Stream Interaction Has Recently Lead To Quite An Uncertain Array Of Low Track Options Ranging From Suppressed Streaks Of Winter Pcpn And Srn Rains With Limited Moisture To Well Developed Sern To East Coast Storms.

Latest Guidance And/Or Trends Indicate The Ingredients For Potentially Well Organized Winter Precipitation Threats Remains Wed-Fri Inland To The Srn Appalachians And Newd Across The Mid-Atlantic To New England On The Nw Periphery Of Frontal/Low Focused Pcpn Shields.

Recent Ecmwf Ensemble Members Have Been Most Supportive With Lifting A Coastal Low Up Off The Ern Seaboard Compared To Canadian Ensemble Members And A Smaller But Slowly Increasing Number Of Gfs Ensemble Members.

The Large Scale Pattern Seems Reasonably Favorable If You Can Get Past Impulse Wavelength Spacing And Stream Interaction Uncertainties.

Overall Amid Uncertainty...Wpc Surface Fronts/Pressure And 500 Mb
Progs Along With Associated Sensible Weather Grids Have Been Most Closely Derived From An Ecmwf Ensemble Mean And Wpc/Ndfd
Continuity Blend.

Wpc Guidance Highlights A Quite Wet Nwrn Us Next Week...An Organized Srn To East Coast Low Threat Wed To Fri...And A Nrn Us Tier Clipper Low/Modest Snow Swath Thu/Fri With A Subsequent Cold Airmass Surge Down Into The Central And Ern Us In The Wake Of System Passage.


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