US Extended Forecast thru Feb 15

...Nwrn Us Very Wet Flow And Downstream Sern/Ern Us Winter Low
Threats...

Relatively Low Amplitude Lower 48 Flow Overall Is Slow To Amplify
In A Medium Range Guidance Pattern Leading Into A Broad Mean
Mid-Upper Level Wrn Us Ridge And East-Central Us Trough.

The Models Suffer From Run-Run Timing/Emphasis Continuity Issues With Sensible Weather Focusing Weather Systems Embedded In A More Consistent Larger Scale Flow Evolution.

Ensemble Means Have Tended To A Lesser Degree Mimic Some Of The Daily Trends Inherent To Their Deterministic Sister Models...But By Nature In This Flow Type Offer More Stable Guidance Consistent With Uncertainty.

Despite Uncertainty With The Specifics Of Smaller Scale Embedded
Systems...The Larger Pattern And Moisture Does Seem Quite
Favorable For Wet Flow From The Pacific Into The Nwrn Us In A
Prolonged Series Of Inland Breaching Systems.

This Would Include Some Heavier Coastal And Especially Terrain Enhanced Pcpn/Snows From Wrn Wa/Or Down Into Nrn Ca...With Decreasing Qpf Amounts Inland Over The Nwrn Us Quarter Albeit With Some Local Terrain Maxima.

The Inland Translation Of Pacific And Nrn Stream Shortwaves Then
Leads Into Emerging Central To Ern Us Winter Low Threats.

The Details Of Srn Stream Systems Aloft And Any Eventual Nrn Stream Interaction Has Recently Lead To Quite An Array Of Low Track
Options Ranging From A Nuisance Streaks Of Winter Pcpn And Srn
Rains With Limited Moisture To Well Developed Sern To East Coast
Lows.

The Ingredients For The Potentially Heaviest Winter Threat At This Point Seems Inland To The Srn Appalachians And Newd Across The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast On The Nw Periphery Of A Low Focused
Pcpn Shield In The Wed-Fri Time Frame.

Overall Amid Uncertainty...Wpc Surface Fronts/Pressure And 500 Mb
Progs Along With Associated Sensible Weather Grids Have Been
Primarily Derived From A Blend Of Latest Ensemble Means/Guidance
Concensus Approach With Subsequent Manual Forecast Adjustments With An Eye Toward Continuity.

Wpc Guidance Highlights A Very Wet Nwrn Us Next Week...An Organized Srn To East Coast Low Threat Wed-Fri...And A Nrn Us Tier Clipper Low/Modest Snow Swath Thu/Fri With A Subsequent Cold Airmass Surge Down Into The Central And Ern Us In The Wake Of System Passage.


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