US Extended Forecast thru Dec 8

...Active Winter Weather Pattern For The West This Forecast Period...

...Overview...

Amplified Pattern Aloft In The Eastern Pacific And North American
Continent This Forecast Period Allows A Bitterly-Cold Arctic Airmass Intrusion To Spread Across The Lower 48.

Along The Leading Edge Of This Arctic Boundary...Several Areas Of
Cyclogenesis Will Develop---Producing Wintry Precipitation--For
The Intermountain West...Great Plains And Midwest. Out Ahead Of
The Arctic Front...Widespread Precipitation And Warm Advection Are
Expected To Migrate Eastward From The Gulf Of Mexico...To The Ohio
Valley...Appalachians And Eastern Seaboard.

...Preferences...

Preferred A Non-Gfs Type Deterministic Approach (This 1/00z Cycle) ...At Least Through Day 4 With The Details Of A Lead Wave Ejecting East-Northeastward Migrating (Well Ahead Of The Arctic Front) Between Northern Rockies To The Dakotas.

By Day 4 Into Day 5...The 1/00z Ukmet/Ecmwf/Gfs Deterministic Runs 'Regroup' And Offer Some Detail Along The Periphery Of This Boundary From The Pacific Coast Eastward Into The Piedmont.

East Of 95w Longitude...As The Arctic Front Surges Through The
Midwest And Into The Ohio-Lower Mississippi Valley...The Front
Modifies Just Enough South Of 35n-36n Latitude With The Breakout
Of Precipitation To 'Slowdown' The Arctic Boundary...As It Approaches The Appalachian Chain.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

High Plains...Intermountain West And Northern Rockies...30+ Millibars Of Surface Gradient On Day 3...Suggest There Will Be A
Period Of Gusty Winds Along The Arctic Boundary. Temperatures
Behind The Front Remain A Healthy 20-30f Below Normal.

Broad Area Of 20-25f Below Normal Temperatures Follow The Arctic
Front To The Ohio Valley...Southern Plains Into The Tennessee Valley Day 5-6.


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