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US Extended Forecast thru Dec 21

...Another Arctic Airmass Poised To Dive Into The Northern Plains
Late Next Week...

...Overview And Guidance Preferences...

Another Significant Pattern Change Continues To Be Well-Advertised
By The Models/Ensembles Next Week As The Ridge/Trough Orientation Flips.

Trend Has Been Toward A More Separated/Slower/Deeper Southern Stream Shortwave Or Closed Low Dropping Southward Toward
Southern California Late Next Week As The Northern Stream
Maintains Its Robust Nature Through Canada.

The Ecmwf Has Generally Led The Way With This Forecast Though The Gfs Is Within The Proverbial Ballpark.

The Gefs Mean Offered A Slower/Deeper Sw Solution Than The Ecens 24 Hrs Ago But Has Maintained Its Mean Position While The Trend Has Seemingly Swung Past It.

Arctic Air Intrusions Can Often Sink Southward Quicker Than What The Models Suggest Which Always Complicates The Forecast.

A Blend Comprising A Majority Weighting Of The 00z Ecmwf/Ecens And A Minority Weighting Of The 06z Gefs/Gfs Offered A Good Starting Point Considering The Subtle But Important Sensible Weather Differences Seen Among Them.

Preferred To Maintain The Ec Cluster Continuity Taking Low Pressure Into The Great Lakes By Fri/D6 As The Arctic Express Pushes Through The High Plains.

Opted To Rely On A 70/30 Ecens/Gefs Blend By Fri-Sat/D6-7... Which Kept A Bit Slower Progression Of The Northern Stream Energy Through Southern Canada... And Thus A Bit Slower Frontal Progression In The Northeast Than The Ecmwf.

...Sensible Weather Impacts...

Cold Front Will Bring Below Normal Temps To Areas In The West Into
The Plains As Southward Push Of Upper Energy Allows Some Cooling On The West Side Of The Divide... But Concentrated To The East.

Anomalies Should Be In The 15f To 25f Below Normal Across The
Northern High Plains Into The Upper Ms Valley Thu-Sat/D5-7.

Lake Effect Snows Should Be The Main Focus Early In The Medium Range But Then As The Trough Digs Through The West Precip Will Expand Across The Conus.

Still Watching The Oh/Tn Valley By Sat/D7 For The Potential For Heavy Rain Depending On How Quickly The Southern Energy Ejects Eastward.

Winter Weather Conditions Appear Likely For The Northern Plains And Great Lakes North Of The Surface Cyclone.

In Addition... This Leaves Plenty Of Room For Gulf Moisture To Regenerate A Secondary Pulse Of Over-Running Precipitation Across The Southern Plains... Southeast... Appalachians And Portions Of The Upper Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic States Through The End Of Day 7 Atop A Very Shallow Canadian Surface High.


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