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US Extended Forecast thru Dec 1

Short Range Forecast Discussion
Valid 00Z Mon Nov 25 2013 - 00Z Wed Nov 27 2013

...Sleet and freezing rain to continue for parts of the Southern Plains
through early Monday morning...

...Temperatures will warm this week over the Southern Plains and East Coast after a cold start...

...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain expected from the Gulf Coast toward the Mid-Atlantic states...

An arctic airmass in place from the Southern Plains to the Southeast, and northward through the Ohio Valley and New England, should continue to promote wintry weather for portions of the Southern Plains tonight.

While a batch of snow, sleet and freezing rain has been pushing off toward the east and weakening over eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, a renewed surge of precipitation is expected to develop tonight over southwestern Texas as an anomalous upper disturbance approaches from New Mexico.

Additional sleet and ice accumulations are expected to be in the light to moderate range for northern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas, but any frozen precipitation should be coming to an end by Monday afternoon as cold air begins to retreat, leading to rain as the dominant precipitation type.

The storm will track eastward along the Gulf Coast region Monday night into Tuesday with deep moisture advecting northward into the Deep South and Southeast with locally heavy rain and even thunderstorms for locations closer to the Gulf.

A surface low connected to the disturbance aloft will begin to strengthen on Tuesday near the Gulf Coast with low level winds
increasing out ahead of it, allowing warmer and more moist conditions to move into the region in the wake of a lifting warm front.

While likely starting off as freezing rain for the eastern slopes of the central and southern Appalachians Tuesday morning, precipitation will changeover to rain by mid-day for the region with locally heavy rain possibly leading to flooding concerns for portions of the Deep South and Mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile, cold air will still be present in parts of the upper Ohio
Valley and northern Appalachians which should cause the precipitation to start off as snow by later in the day on Tuesday.

Light accumulations will be possible by sundown Tuesday for these locations.

Out across the western U.S., upper level ridging will dominate the upper level pattern, leading to a pleasant start to the week with temperatures near or slightly above average under mostly sunny skies.
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Extended Forecast Discussion
Valid 12z Wed Nov 27 2013 - 12z Sun Dec 01 2013

...Wet, White, And Windy Storm To Race Up The Atlantic States
Wednesday...

Used A Blend Of The 06z/24 Gefs Mean And The 12z/23 Ecens Mean For The Fronts And Pressures Across The Contiguous United States Days 3 Through 7.

The Combination Of These Ensemble Means Allows For An
Ever-So-Slight Westward Adjustment From Previous Wpc Forecasts To The East Coast System Early In The Period--A Tip Of The Hat To The Trend Of Much Of The Guidance In That Direction During The Past 3 Major Model Cycles.

Those Means Are Also In Harmony Over The Central And Western United States, As Well As The Eastern Pacific Ocean.

The East Coast System Should Bring Soaking Rains And Strong Winds To Areas East Of The Appalachians, With Snow And Some Ice In The Appalachians.

Whatever Changeover Of Rain To Snow That Might Occur In The Lower Elevations Should Lead To Less Significant Accumulations Than In The High Country, But Is A Finer Point That Needs To Be Monitored Closely In The Short Range.

Another Upper Low Closing Off West Of California Should At Least Graze Areas From The Coast To The Crest Of The Sierra Nevada With
Precipitation During The First Half Of The Period.

A New System Seems Destined To Bring Precipitation Into The Pacific Northwest Late In The Forecast.


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