US Extended Forecast thru Aug 9

Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Over The Nern Caribbean Near 15.7n 63.0w At 03 Utc And Is Packing 45 Kt Max Sustained Winds With Gusts To 55 Kts. The National Hurricane Center Forecasts The System May Reach Minimal Hurricane Strength When Tracking North Off The Ern US Coast...Held Offshore By An Ern Us Mid-Upper Level Trough That Persists During Bertha Passage.

A Trailing Wavy Front Should Allow Moisture/Convection To Linger Over The Coastal Ern Us And The Sern Us...With Slow Moving Vort Energies Back Near The Central Gulf Coast Also Providing Some Local Downpours.

Elsewhere...High Latitude Blocky Flow Established From The Nern Pacific Into Canada Gradually Weakens Next Week Leading Now To More Significant Deterministic Model Variance And Less Run To Run Continuity With Repsect To Embedded Weather Systems Timing / Amplitude And Sensible Weather Focus.

While More Suppressed Than Yesterday With Growing Uncertainty ... Cntrl Us To Midwest/Oh Valley Low Pressure And Trailing Plains/Ms Valley Front Approach Into A Lead Warm Sector Should Favor Organized Convection Mid Through Late Next Week As Fueled By Returning Gulf Moisture. This Pattern Still Favors Some Lead Thetae Advection And Mcs/Noctural Convection And Repeat Cell Rainfall Threat Sinking From The Midwest Into Ky/Tn...Spilling Sewd Into The Mid-Atlc And Srn Appalachians.

Meanwhile...Ample Energy Rotating On Amplified Ridge Periphery Through The Swrn Us/Great Basin And Rocky States Should Feed On Monsoonal Moisture To Focus An Active Convective Pattern Next Week ...Especially With Favored Terrain/Upslope Where Some Moderately Heavy Local Amounts Are Possible.


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