US Extended Forecast thru Aug 19

Rather Strong Upper Ridging Centered Near The Southern Tip Of Greenland Favors Troughing In The Eastern Conus And Much Weaker Troughing In The Pac Nw Over The Period.

Ensembles Continue To Suggest A Trend Toward A Much Flatter Pattern By Next Week In A Lower Amplitude Flow... Leading To Decreased Predictability Of Both Speed/Amplitude With Embedded Shortwaves.

Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Have Been More Consistent Than The Gfs/Gefs Mean In Recent Runs... And Also Show A Deeper/Slower Trough In The Northeast Around Sun/D5. Longer Term /Monthly/ Trend Has Been Toward More Rather Than Less Troughing In The East... So Put More Weight In The Ecmwf-Led Solution.

Temperatures Will Average Near To Below Average In The East And Southeast And Also In Much Of The West. The Central States Should See Near To Above Average Temperatures Thanks To Ridging At Least Early In The Period.

Precipitation Should Focus Over The Northern Rockies And Toward The Plains Ahead Of The Exiting Upper Low Early In The Period.

Downstream... Embedded Mid-Level Energy Should Help Support Precip Over The Central Conus Along And North Of The Stationary / Wavy Frontal Boundary... Which Could Be Locally Heavy Should An Organized Mesoscale System Develop.

Florida Should Also See Its Daily Showers/Storms In The More Humid Airmass.

A Broad But Modest Area Of Precipitation Should Follow The Northern Stream System Moving Through The Great Lakes And Northeast This Weekend.


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