US Extended Forecast thru Aug 18

A Vortex On The Order Of 3 Standard Deviations Below Normal Is Progged To Settle Into The Northeast By Thursday. Another Vortex--Centered Over The Northern Intermountain Region--Will Be
Embedded In The Broad Ridge Over The West At About The Same Time. While Not As Deep And Sprawling, The Western Vortex Is Still Anomalous In Its Own Right--About 2 Standard Deviations Below Normal.

What Is Perhaps As Impressive As The Development Of These Deep Eddies Is The Rapidity Of Their Predicted Dispersal By Next Sunday / Monday. Breakdown Occurs Via A Fundamental Reshuffling Of The Flow Across Canada In Conjuncture With Arrival Of Uncertain Pacific Upper Jet Energy. Details Of These And Any Downstream Effects From An Active Pacific Tropical Pattern Seem The Source Of Most Generally Modest Forecast Spread. However...The Unseasonal Pattern Transition More Likely Portends Above Normal Uncertainty.

Vortex Development And Evolution In This Scenario Would Cool / Unsettle As Lead Wavy Frontal Systems Remain The Focus For Best Organized Heavier Rainfall Potential. Main Threat Areas Exit From The Nern Us Into The Canadian Maritimes...But Linger Along A Trailing And Slow Moving Sern To S-Central Front. Ample Activity From The Nwrn Us To The N-Central Us As Encouraged By Upper Diffluence / Vorts And Emerging Return Flow Underneath...And Also Monsoonally In The Southwest.


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