US Extended Forecast thru Aug 16

Multi-Day Means Continue To Show Greater Than Average Stability In The Best Defined Features ... A Core Of Neg Hgt Anomalies Assoc With Srn Bering Sea Into Nrn Pac Troughing And High Latitude Pos Hgt Anomalies Assoc With Ridging To The N Of Alaska.

Position Of These Anomaly Centers Has Shifted A Bit On A Day To Day Basis But Teleconnections With Each Anomaly Center Have Been Pointing To A Weakness Near The West Coast... An Interior West Mean Ridge... And Ern Noam Mean Troughing. So Far The Ensemble Means Have Tended To Provide A Better Fit To The Teleconnection-Favored Pattern Over Wrn-Cntrl Noam Where Guidance Spread Has Been Greatest And Continues With This Cycle.

Confidence Remains Below Avg Already By Day 4 Wed But Even With The Spread That Exists There Appears To Be Better Consensus Toward The Idea Of Leading Upr Low Energy Initially Over Ca On Tue Ejecting Newd Into Idaho By Early Wed.

Of Course The Spread Already Seen On Day 4 Wed Leads To Below Avg Confidence In Mid Lvl Details Over The Wrn-Cntrl Conus...As Well As For Cntrl Conus Sfc Details After Early Day 5 Thu.

Another Wild Card Will Be A Compact Mid Lvl Impulse... Now Over Nern Mexico... Fcst To Reach Arizona By Day 4 Wed And Continue Into The Rockies/Plains Mid-Late Period. The Teleconnection-Favored Pattern Suggests Energy Crossing That Region Should Be Weaker... While A Modest Degree Of Troughing Lingers Near The West Coast.

By Late In The Period The Favored Ensemble Mean Blend Yields Merely A Broad Sfc Trough Crossing The Cntrl Conus Due To The Lack Of Definition Of Energy Aloft.

On The Other Hand There Is Still Fairly Good Clustering/Continuity With The Medium To Larger Scale Aspects Of Expected Ern Noam Development. The Only Detail Change Of Note In Latest Consensus Is In The First Half Of The Period With A Slightly Earlier Arrival Of Energy Aloft To The East Coast And Thus A Quicker Shift In Cold Frontal Definition To The One Trailing From The Coastal Wave
Versus The Front Trailing From The Grtlks/Sern Canada Wave.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Wrn States Should See At Least A Couple Areas Of Organized Convection... One In Assoc With A Compact Upr Low Fcst To Eject Newd From Nrn Ca Tue-Wed And Another Supported By An Impulse That Should Track Across Nrn Mexico During The Short Range And Reach Az By Day 4 Wed.

Currently Expect Two Relative Maxima In Rnfl Over The West... Parts Of The Northwest/Nrn Rockies As Well As From Az Into Wrn Co. Potential Exists For Some Locally Hvy Convection To Extend Into The Nrn-Cntrl Plains Later In The Week But With Below Avg Confidence In Existence/Location.

Continue To Expect Highest Rnfl Totals Over The East To Be Focused Over The Northeast... Given The Combination Of Vigorous Dynamics And A Period Of Fairly Strong Onshore Flow From The Atlc... And
Over The Extreme South/Gulf Coast With One Front Being Replaced By A Second.

Expect Warmest Temps Relative To Normal From The Northwest Into The Nrn High Plains Early In The Period With Some Locations Psbly Exceeding 10f Above Normal For Highs On Tue.

The Pattern Over The Ern Half Of The Lower 48 Should Favor Multiple Days With Below Normal Temps Over Most Areas From The Ms Vly To East Coast. Minus 5-10f Anomalies Should Be Common Nrn-Cntrl Areas With Isold Locations Slightly Cooler On One Or More Days.

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