US Extended Forecast thru Apr 4

Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
1148 Am Edt Fri Mar 28 2014
Valid 12z Mon Mar 31 2014 - 12z Fri Apr 04 2014

...Overview...

The Transition From Winter To Summer... Aka Spring... Is Underway
As The Calendar Turns To April.

The Mid-Upper Level Vortex Near Hudson Bay Is Forecast To Retreat Northward Past 70n While A Series Of Pacific Systems Should Migrate Through The Lower 48.

A Wet And Cool Pattern Continues For The West Coast... Great
Basin... And Northern Rockies While Large Swings In Temperature
Are Likely For The Central Plains... Midwest... And Mid-Ms/W Oh
Valleys.

..Model Preferences/Uncertainty Assessment...

Guidance Is Well-Clustered Mon/D3 As Three Systems Progress
Eastward... One Along The W Coast... Another Near New England...
And A Robust System Moving Through The Central Plains Toward The
Great Lakes. Models/Ensembles Maintain Decent Agreement In The
East Into Wed/D5 As The System Weakens And Pushes Offshore.

In The West... Larger Disagreement Between The Quicker Gefs
Ensemble Members And The Slower Ecmwf Members Becomes Evident By Tue/D4.

Trend Has Been Toward A Slower And More Amplified Trough... Despite The Opposite Trend Downstream In The East... So
Preference Lied With The Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Cluster Of Solutions
Along With Ongoing Wpc Continuity.

System Should Dive Through The Southern Plains Wed/D5 And Turn The Corner Toward The Midwest/Great Lakes By The End Of The Week. Models Diverge In Somewhat Typical Fashion With The 00z Gfs Quickest... 00z Ecmwf Slowest... And The 00z Canadian And 06z Gfs Somewhat In The Middle.

00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Offered A Most Reasonable Solution
And Has Support From Several Individual Ensemble Clusters.

Incorporated Wpc Continuity Which Fit Well With Forecaster
Preference.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Low Pressure Exiting The Northeast For The Canadian Maritimes Gets An Infusion Of Mid-Level Shortwave Energy From East Central Canada Migrating Eastward Across Northern New England... Which Allows For Showery Precipitation And Some Light Snowfall Across The White And Green Mountains Into Eastern Maine Until Early Tue/D4.

The System Moving Through The Central Plains Mon-Tue/D3-4 Will
Produce Some Wintry Weather Along Its Northern Periphery As The
Deformation And Comma Head Cloud Shield Wraps Up From The
Mid-Missouri Valley Northeastward Into The Upper Midwest.

For The Northern Plains... Cold Air Plunges Southward With Temps 10-20f Below Climo.

Ahead Of The Cold Front... Warm Advection Surges Into The Central Lakes Region And Mid-Mississippi Valley With High Temperatures About 10f Above Climo. This Will Move Eastward For Tue/D4.

By Wed/D6... Height Falls Entering Southern Plains Along With Sfc
Low Pressure Exiting Se Co And Increased Gulf Moisture Will Set
The Stage For Convection In The Southern Plains.

Spc Has Highlighted A Risk Of Severe Weather Centered Over Eastern Ok Into Western Ar. System And Associated Convection Should Push Into The Southeast Thu-Fri/D6-7.

Ensembles And Deterministic Models Indicate Potential For Widespread Moderate Rain Between I-20 And I-70 At Week's End As The Upper Trough And Sfc Boundary Slides Eastward.

Any Wintry Precip Should Be Confined To The Upper Midwest Into The Western Great Lakes.


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