US Extended Forecast thru Apr 27

...Model Preference/Uncertainty Assessment...

The 20/00z Ensemble Guidance Remains Consistent With The Primary Synoptic-Scale Features And Overall Flow Pattern Setup Across The Lower 48.

They Continue To Form A Solid Consensus Cluster Of Solutions Invof The Upper Great Lakes Region For Day 4-5. And Provide A Negative-Tilt Trough Scenario Across The Extreme Southeast Gulf Of Alaska And Invof The Pacific Northwest After Day 5.

The 20/00z Ecens...Naefs And Gefs Looked Like Good Choices Through Day 7.

Of The Deterministic Guidance...The 20/00z Ecmwf Splits The Energy Entering The Pacific Northwest (Friday) And Is Not Nearly As Amplified With The Next Upper-Level Versus The 20/00z Deterministic Canadian-Gfs-Ukmet.

This Solution Generates A Fast-Moving Surface Wave Over The South Central Plains By Day 6-7 That Does Not Seem To Accurately Depict The Projected Flow Pattern In The Western Third Of The Nation.

Or For That Matter...The Flow In The Eastern Conus. Something Canadian-Like Or Gfs-Like Seems To Fit The Projected Flow Pattern Aloft And At The Surface In Better Fashion.

Over Western Ontario And Lake Superior... The Ecmwf Is The Deepest
Aloft--60 Meters Deeper--Than Other Solutions.

After Day 5...Will Whittle Out The Deterministic Ecmwf Altogether And Whittle Down The Canadian/Gfs Deterministic For Details.

But Do Like The Gfs/Canadian In The In The Context Of An
Amplified/Energetic Southwest/Southern Plains Mid-Level System
Carving Out Of The Base Of A Negative-Tilt Upper-Level Trough
Axis.

Downstream...A Slightly More Amplified Ridge East Of 100w...Which Is Accounted For Manually In The Surface Graphics Day 6-7...As A Slower And Amplifying High Plains Cyclonic Flow...Without Gulf Moisture Support.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Mid-To Upper-Level Trough And Surface System Off The Northeast
Coast Migrating Into The Canadian Maritimes Will Be Generating
Showers Across Maine And The Higher Elevations Of Northern New
England. A Cool...Post-Frontal Northwest Flow Continues Into Day
4.

Active But Isolated Dryline Convection To Prevail Across The Southern And West Central High Plains Tuesday And Wednesday Evenings.

Breezy To Windy Conditions And Rising Temperatures Precede The Ejection Of A Pacific System Migrating Across The Pacific Northwest And Northern Rockies.

Rain...Showers And High-Elevation Snows Are Anticipated From The Sierra And Cascades Into The Northern Plains...Dakotas And Eastward Into The Upper Great Lakes Through Thursday.

Perhaps A Repeat Performance In The Day 6-7 Time Frame When The Next Pacific System Begins Its Exit From The Continental Divide. Ie...More Hot Winds And Another Dryline Event For Southwest Kansas...Southeast Colorado And The Tx/Ok Panhandles.

Pacific Northwest...Sierra...Cascades And Great Basin Remain Active Regions Of Sensible Weather Next Friday And Into Next Weekend.

Southern End Of The Pacific Front Is Not Expected To Be Moisture-Laden...But Should Be Breezy And Cooler Behind The Front.


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