US Extended Forecast thru Apr 14

The Outgoing Eastern U.S. Trough Will Lay Down A Front In The Gulf / Caribbean Which Will Limit Moisture Availability On Days 3-5... As We Go Through A Period Of Lesser Amplified And Moderately Progressive Flow.

The Pattern Will Buckle More Substantially On Days 6/7...Sunday And Monday...When A Relatively Dry Southwestern U.S. Low Emerges East Of The Rockies And Phases With A Broad Amplifying Northern Stream Trough.

This Will Tap Gulf Moisture And Yield A Widespread Rain Event Beginning In The Plains And Great Lakes.

In The Northwest The Gfs/Gefs Are More Aggressive At Breaking A System Through The Ridge Late In The Period.

The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Has Been The Leader In Predicting The Strength Of The Ridge...And It Suggests The Brunt Of The System May Be Deflected Northward.

...Model Evaluation...

Guidance Remains In Good Agreement Through The Transitional
Pattern Over The Next Week.

Forecast Confidence Is Near To Above Normal...Especially Early In The Period...Due To Relatively Stable Ensemble Solutions And Steady Wpc Continuity.

Gfs Solutions Have Been Characteristically On The Faster Side Of
The Operational Models...But The 06z Gfs Was Slower And Better
Aligned With The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean.

The Latest Ecmwf Operational Solution Was Characteristically On The Deep Side With Some Features.

This Is Especially True Of The Deeper Low It Whips Up Along The Canadian Border On Day 6...Anchoring The Digging Full Latitude Trough.

Given This Is A Large Scale System Occurring In Spring We Would Not Be Surprised To See Models Trend Toward A Stronger Solution ... But The 00z Ecmwf Had Very Little Support From Its 51 Member Ensemble.

We Began Our Blend With 50/50 Portions Of The 00z Ecmwf And 06z Gfs On Day 3...Then Weighted Our Solution More Heavily Toward The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean By Days 5-7.

But We Maintained 20-30 Percent 00z Ecmwf In The Blend To Reflect A Slightly Stronger System Along The Canadian Border...And Also To
Capture The Anticipated Frontal Wave That Would Form Around Mo/Ar
On Day 7 As The Southwestern Low Ejects.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

A Northern Stream System Will Push Through Southern Canada With
Generally Light Precipitation For The U.S. Northern Tier And The
Zone Between I-40 And I-70 On Thu/Fri.

Pre-Frontal Temperatures Should Warm Across Much Of The Oh Valley Then Into The Eastern Conus Late In The Week With Modest Cooling Behind The Front As The Upper Flow Becomes More Zonal.

Out West...Pacific Trough Energy/Height Falls And An Associated Frontal System Should Work Ashore Into Ca And Into The Swrn Us Along With Light/Scattered Showers And Some Cooling Temps.

By Sun-Mon/D6-7...Northern Stream And Southern Stream Energy Should Support Combined But Elongated Front With Organizing Sfc Low Pressure Through The Southern Plains And Lower Ms Valley.

This Sets Up The Likelihood Of Widespread Precipitation...Although Precipitable Water Values Are Not Forecast To Reach Much Above The Climatological Normals.

Cooler Air On The Back Side Of This System Will Drop The Northern
Plains/Midwest To 10-15 Degrees Below Average.


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