US Extended Forecast thru Apr 13

...Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Short Term Through Mid-Week -
Amplified Flow Aloft Transitions From Quasi-Zonal At The End Of The Week Toward One With An Amplifying Nrn Stream Along With Slowly Progressive Troughing Working Inland From The Pacific Through The Sw States This Coming Weekend.

Despite Multiple Transitions...Forecast Spread/Uncertainty Remains
At Or Above Normal For Much Of The Week.

For Days 3-5/Wed-Fri...
Forecast Spread Is Modest And The 00 Utc Ecmwf Seems Closest To The Composite Timing Of Lower 48 And Vicinity Weather Features While Overall Clustering Fairly Well With The 06 Utc Gfs And 00 Utc Canadian.

Respective Ensemble Means Are Also Supportive And Wpc Continuity Is Well Maintained And Extends Well From Short Term Model Wpc Preferences.

Upstream...The Models/Ensembles Have Been Steady In Their Synoptic Evolution But Still Vary Mostly On Timing With The Pacific Energy.

The 00 Utc Gfs/Gefs Members Lie On The Quicker Side Followed By
The Canadian/Ukmet And 06 Utc Gfs/Gefs And A Vast Majority Of
Ecmwf Ensemble Members And Then Finally The Deterministic Ecmwf Which Was One Of The Slowest Within The Spread.

A Modest Compromise Solution Was Invoked Overnight...But Have Now Opted To Lean Much More On The Slower 00 Utc Ecmwf Given The Highly Amplified Water Vapor Imagery Nature Now Evident Upstream Over The Pacific.

This Less Progressive Srn Stream Solution Also Would Allow More Room For A Cold Air Surge To Dig Through The N-Central Us And Nwrn Us Via An Amplifying Nrn Stream Next Weekend.

However...Given Transitional Flows And Increasing Forecast Spread
By That Time Have Tempered To Some Degree The Quite Anomalous
Ecmwf Cold Blast By Incorporation Of Some Ecmwf Ensemble Means And Manual Adjustments.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

In The Wake Of The Exiting Lead Eastern System Wed/D3... Another
Shot Of Below Average Temperatures Should Push Through The East
Before Heights Rise Along With Sfc Temperatures.

A Second System Of Interest Should Push Through Southern Canada With Generally Light Precipitation For The Us Northern Tier.

Pre-Frontal Temperatures Should Warm Nicely Across Much Of The Central Then Eastern Conus Late In The Week With Modest Cooling Behind The Front As The Upper Flow Becomes More Zonal.

Out West... Pacific Trough Energy/Height Falls And An Associated Frontal System Should Work Ashore Into Ca And Into The Swrn Us Next Weekend Along With Showers And Some Cooling Temps.

By Sun/D7...Trough Energies Should Organize Low Pressure Through The Srn Plains And With A Wavy Nwrn Us/N-Central Us Frontal Surge That Combine To An Increase In Precipitation / Convection With / Ahead Of The Fronts...And Especially Over The Central Us With Post-Frontal Potential For Upslope Enhanced Spring Central Rockies Snows.


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