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US Extended Forecast thru Apr 12

Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Amplified Nw-Se Oriented Ridge/Trough Couplet Across The Conus
Early Next Week Will Give Way To Increased Western Troughing And A
Trend Toward Zonal Flow In The East By The Start Of Next Weekend.

The Models/Ensembles Have Come Into Better Agreement Through Most Of Next Week Toward The Ecmwf-Led Solution Seen 24 Hrs Ago... Which Favored A Bit Quicker Exit Of The Lead Eastern System Early In The Period But A Slower Approach Of Pacific Energy Into
California Later In The Week.

A Consensus Blend Was Used Through About Thu/D5 Before Trending Toward A Blend Of The 18z Gefs Mean And 12z Naefs / Ecens Means For Fri-Sat/D6-7.

The Gefs Members Mostly Lie On The Quicker Side Of The Spread By Sat/D7... Which Shows Its Typical Bias But Cannot Totally Be Ruled Out.

Overall...Confidence Remains Near To Above Average This Forecast
Period.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

Exiting Lead Eastern System Will Take Its Precip Shield Into The
Northeast And Then Canada As The Front Pushes Offshore... Ushering In Another Shot Of Below Average Temperatures For The East.

Second System Of Interest Should Push Through Southern Canada With Generally Light Precipitation For The Northern Tier... Heralded By
A Warmup From The Plains Eastward Ahead Of The Front.

Temperatures Should Rise Into The 60s And 70s In The Central Then Eastern Conus Wed/D4 Through Fri/D6 Until The Front Passes But Should Get Hung Up Along The I-40 Corridor As The Upper Flow Becomes Zonal... Though A Sfc Wave Could Develop Along The Front.

In The West...Pacific Energy Should Creep Ashore California But With Generally Little Fanfare Aside From A Few Light Showers And A Bit Cooler Temperatures.


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