US Extended Forecast thru Apr 11

Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Rather Active Springtime Upper Pattern Will Continue Over The Conus Through Next Week.

Amplified Ridge/Trough Over The Pac Nw/Eastern Third Of The Country... Respectively... Will Relax In Time As Pacific Energy Encroaches Upon California By The End Of Next Week.

The Models/Ensembles Are In Good Agreement Throughout The Forecast With Mainly Timing Differences Among The Gfs... Gefs
Members... And Ukmet/Canadian/Ecmwf/Ec Ensemble Members Camps.

The Gefs Members Were Mostly Quicker With The Flow Than The Rest Of The Guidance... And Were Not Preferred.

The Gfs Was A Bit Slower With The Exit Of The Lead System In The East Mid-Week But The Recent Trend In The Non-Gfs Models Has Been Toward A Quicker Exodus Via A More Open Wave Aloft.

By Later Next Week... The Energy Approaching Or Moving Into California Has Shown A Fair Amount Of Spread Among The Ensembles.

The Gefs... Again... Are Quickest And Not Preferred. The Ecmwf / Canadian Ensembles Were Slower... Along With Their Deterministic Counterparts... But The Ensembles Have Trended A Bit Quicker While The Deterministic Runs Have Been A Bit More Stable In The Timing But Not The Strength Of The System.

Latest 12z/03 Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Offered A Most Reasonable Starting Point And Trended Toward This Idea By Fri/D7... With Some Added Details From The Deterministic Ecmwf.

Forecast Confidence Is Near To Above Average.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Lead Eastern System Will Spread A Large Area Of Modest Rains East
Of 90w... With The Best Chance For Heavier Rain In The Southeast.

Below Average Temps Are Expected Until The Trough Axis Passes
Offshore Late Wed/D5... Down Through Florida As The Front Pushes
Well To The South.

The West Will See An Expanding Area Of Above Average Temperatures Push Eastward Past The Rockies As Heights Rise Through The Central States.

Modest Warming Will Push Into The Eastern Conus Later In The Week.

Precipitation Next Thu-Fri Should Be Minimal Compared To The Recent Heavy Rain Events... Limited To The Northern Tier As A System Pushes Through Southern Canada And Also Into Some Portions Of California As The Energy Nears The Coast.


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