Tropical Storm Humberto Riding to Its Mid Atlantic Doom

Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 23
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Sat Sep 14 2013

...Humberto Expected To Become Post-Tropical Later Today...

Summary Of 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...Information
Location...25.0n 34.0w
About 895 Mi...1445 Km Nw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 275 Degrees At 9 Mph...15 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb...29.62 Inches

Watches And Warnings
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Humberto Was Located Near Latitude 25.0 North...Longitude 34.0 West. Humberto Is Moving Toward The West Near 9 Mph...15 Km/H. A Turn To The West-Northwest Is Expected By Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Additional Weakening Is Forecast...And Humberto Is Expected
To Become A Remnant Low Later Today. However...Redevelopment To A Tropical Depression Or Storm Could Occur On Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 185 Miles...295 Km From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 23
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Sat Sep 14 2013

Humberto Is In The Process Of Transitioning To A Post-Tropical
Cyclone. The System Has Been Devoid Of Deep Convection For A
Considerable Amount Of Time...And If Convection Does Not Return
Soon It Will Likely Be Declared A Post-Tropical Cyclone Later
Today. Even Though Humberto Lacks Thunderstorm Activity...It
Continues To Have A Large And Well-Defined Low-Level Circulation
And It Is Likely Still Producing Winds Of Tropical Storm Force. The
Initial Wind Speed Is Set At 35 Kt...Assuming A Spin Down From The
Earlier Ascat Data.

Strong Southwesterly Vertical Wind Shear And Dry Stable Air Are
Expected To Continue Affecting Humberto For The Next Couple Of
Days...So The System Will Likely Remain A Post-Tropical Cyclone
During That Time. The Environmental Conditions Become More
Favorable By Monday...And All Of The Intensity Models Show
Humberto Gaining Strength In The 3 To 5 Day Time Frame. The Nhc
Intensity Forecast Follows The Trend Of The Guidance And Is In Good
Agreement With The Previous Advisory. Some Of The Expected
Intensification Appears To Be Associated With A Favorable Trough

The Storm Is On A Westward Path...And The Latest Initial Motion
Estimate Is 275/8. A Continued Westward Motion Is Expected
Throughout The Day While The System Remains On The South Side Of A Deep-Layer Ridge. After That Time...A Gradual Turn To The Right Is Forecast When The Cyclone Nears The Western Edge Of The Ridge. Humberto...Or Its Remnant Low...Is Expected To Recurve In About 4 Days When It Becomes Embedded In Southerly Steering Flow Between The Ridge An Approaching Trough. Although The Models Agree On This Overall Scenario...There Are Significant Differences In Forward Speed During The Recurvature Stage...With The Gfs Being The Fastest And The Ecmwf The Slowest. The Official Track Forecast Is Between Those Models And Lies Very Near The Consensus Aids...Tvca And Tv15.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 14/0900z 25.0n 34.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph
12h 14/1800z 25.3n 35.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
24h 15/0600z 26.2n 38.1w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
36h 15/1800z 27.2n 40.2w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
48h 16/0600z 28.1n 41.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 17/0600z 30.5n 44.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
96h 18/0600z 33.0n 44.5w 50 Kt 60 Mph
120h 19/0600z 37.0n 42.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph

Forecaster Cangialosi

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