Tropical Storm Humberto Becomes Non Tropical But Still Potent Storm in mid Atlantic

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Advisory Number 24
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Ast Sat Sep 14 2013

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
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Location...25.4n 35.4w
About 980 Mi...1580 Km Nw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 285 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1004 Mb...29.65 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Humberto Was Located Near Latitude 25.4 North...Longitude 35.4 West.

The Post-Tropical Cyclone Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 14 Mph...22 Km/H. A Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest With A
Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Couple Of
Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours. However...Redevelopment Of Humberto Into A Tropical
Depression Or A Tropical Storm Could Occur By Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 185 Miles...295 Km From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1004 Mb...29.65 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
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This Is The Last Public Advisory Issued By The National Hurricane
Center On Humberto.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Discussion Number 24
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Ast Sat Sep 14 2013

Humberto Continues To Maintain A Large And Well-Defined
Circulation...But Has Been Without Organized Deep Convection For
About 24 Hours.

Given The Lack Of Deep Convection...Humberto Is Being Declared A Post-Tropical Cyclone On This Advisory...With Winds Estimated To Be 35 Kt Based On A Recent Ascat Pass.

Very Strong West-Southwesterly Shear...Dry Mid-Tropospheric Air... And A Track Over Marginally Warm Sea Surface Temperatures Could Result In A Continued Gradual Spin-Down Of The Cyclone During The Next Day Or Possibly Two.

But, After That...Regeneration Of Humberto Into A Tropical Cyclone Seems Likely Since The Cyclone Will Be Moving Over Warmer Waters And Experiencing A Gradual Decrease In Shear.

Global Models Show Humberto Interacting With A Large Mid-Latitude Trough In About 3 Days.

This Interaction Could Be The Impetus For A Faster Rate Of Intensification Late In The Forecast Period. The Nhc Intensity Prediction Is Kept Higher Initially Assuming A Slower Rate Of Decay. The Extended Forecast Is Kept The Same And Is Slightly Above The Bulk Of The Intensity Guidance.

The Post-Tropical Cyclone Is Moving West-Northwestward...285/11...
Around A Low- To Mid-Level Ridge Over The Northeastern Atlantic.

The Forward Motion Of Humberto Should Gradually Turn Northwestward And Slow Down During The Next Couple Of Days When It Moves Into A Weakness Over The Central Atlantic.

A Strong Trough In The Westerlies Approaching Humberto In About 3 Days Should Lead To A Turn Northeastward With Acceleration On Days 4 And 5. The Nhc Track Forecast Is About The Same As Before But Slower On Days 3 To 5...Lying In Between The Ecmwf And Gfs And Close To The Multi-Model Consensus Tvca.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 14/1500z 25.4n 35.4w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
12h 15/0000z 25.8n 37.1w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
24h 15/1200z 26.7n 39.3w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
36h 16/0000z 27.5n 41.2w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
48h 16/1200z 28.6n 42.6w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
72h 17/1200z 30.9n 44.1w 45 Kt 50 Mph
96h 18/1200z 33.7n 44.1w 55 Kt 65 Mph
120h 19/1200z 37.5n 41.5w 65 Kt 75 Mph

Forecaster Kimberlain


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