Tropical Storm Erin Barely Hanging On in Mid Atlantic

Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 12
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Ast Sat Aug 17 2013

...Erin Moving Northwestward As A Minimal Tropical Storm...

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...21.0n 37.0w
About 920 Mi...1480 Km Wnw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...Nw Or 315 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb...29.71 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Erin Was
Located Near Latitude 21.0 North...Longitude 37.0 West.

Erin Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 13 Mph...20 Km/H. A Turn Toward The West-Northwest Is Expected Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts. Slow Weakening Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land

None.
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Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 12
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Ast Sat Aug 17 2013

The Low-Level Center Of Erin Continues To Be Exposed...And Is
Located South Of A Small Area Of Deep Convection.

The Initial Intensity Remains 35 Kt...But Erin Should Weaken To A Depression Soon In An Environment Of Sub-26c Water And In Southwesterly Shear Of Around 15 Kt.

While The Cyclone Will Be Moving Over Slightly Warmer Waters In The Next 2-3 Days...A Dry Stable Airmass And Moderate Shear Should Result In Eventual Weakening To A Remnant Low.

The Nhc Forecast Shows Remnant Low Status In 3 Days And
Dissipation At Day 4...But This Could Occur Sooner As Shown By
Several Models.

Erin Has Continued To Move Toward The Northwest Over The Past Few Hours...Likely Due To The Influence Of A Deep-Layer Low South Of The Azores. Recent Satellite Images Show That Erin Has Turned Back Toward The Left...And The Initial Motion Estimate Is 315/11. The
Track Model Guidance Is Insistent On Erin Turning Back Toward The
West-Northwest In The Next Day Or So As It Comes Under The Influence Of A Subtropical Ridge Building To The North And Another Cutoff Low Currently Located Near 24n/49w.

If Erin Survives Long Enough...It Will Likely Turn Back Toward The Northwest Into Another Weakness In The Ridge That Develops By 72 Hours. The Nhc Forecast Has Again Been Adjusted Northward And Is Faster Than The Previous One To Account For The Initial Position And Motion. The Nhc Track Lies Near The Middle Of The Guidance Envelope And Close To The Fsu Superensemble.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 17/2100z 21.0n 37.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph
12h 18/0600z 21.5n 38.3w 30 Kt 35 Mph
24h 18/1800z 22.2n 40.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph
36h 19/0600z 23.0n 42.7w 30 Kt 35 Mph
48h 19/1800z 24.0n 45.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph
72h 20/1800z 26.5n 49.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96h 21/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Brennan


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