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Tropical Storm Dorian Fading...Sat AM Jul 27


Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 13
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Sat Jul 27 2013

Dorian Continues Moving Rapidly Westward As A Tropical Storm...

Summary Of 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...18.2n 50.0w
About 860 Mi...1385 Km E Of The Northern Leeward Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 275 Degrees At 22 Mph...35 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1011 Mb...29.85 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Interests In The Northern Leeward Islands Should Monitor The
Progress Of Dorian.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Dorian Was
Located Near Latitude 18.2 North...Longitude 50.0 West.

Dorian Is Moving Toward The West Near 22 Mph...35 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next Two Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Dorian Is Expected To Weaken And Become A Remnant Low In A Day Or So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 60 Miles...95 Km
To The North Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1011 Mb...29.85 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Sat Jul 27 2013

Disorganized Convection Has Developed Near The Center Of Dorian
During The Past Several Hours. However...Water Vapor Imagery Shows Widespread Mid-/Upper-Level Dry Air Near The Cyclone... Which Suggests This Convection Could Be Short-Lived. The Initial
Intensity Is Kept At 35 Kt Based On A Satellite Intensity Estimate
From Tafb And Earlier Ascat Data.

It Should Be Noted That Recent Oscat Data Suggests The Possibility That Dorian No Longer Has A Closed Circulation.

The Initial Motion Is 275/19. A Strong Low-/Mid-Level Ridge North
Of Dorian Is Expected To Steer The Cyclone Quickly Westward For The Next 72 Hr. The Track Guidance Is In Good Agreement With This
Scenario...And The New Track Forecast Is An Update Of The Previous
Forecast.

Dorian Is Forecast To Experience 15-20 Kt Of Vertical Wind Shear
During The Forecast Period...As Well As Move Through A Dry
Mid-/Upper-Level Air Mass.

This Combination Should Cause Additional Weakening...With The Cyclone Degenerating To A Remnant Low By 36 Hr.

An Alternative Scenario Is That The System Could Degenerate To A Tropical Wave At Any Time During The Next 72 Hr... And Thus Dissipate Earlier Than Currently Forecast.

Upper-Level Winds In The Area West Of The Forecast Point Of Dissipation Are Not Expected To Be Conducive For Re-Generation At This Time.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/0900z 18.2n 50.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph
12h 27/1800z 18.6n 53.1w 30 Kt 35 Mph
24h 28/0600z 19.2n 57.2w 30 Kt 35 Mph
36h 28/1800z 19.8n 61.1w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
48h 29/0600z 20.4n 64.7w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 30/0600z 21.0n 71.5w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96h 31/0600z...Dissipated


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