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Tropical Outlook PM Sep 7

1. Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms Continue In Association With A Broad Low Pressure Area...The Remnants Of Gabrielle...Centered Roughly A Couple Hundred Miles Northeast Of The Southeastern Bahamas.

Data From A Noaa G-Iv Research Mission Indicate That Upper-Level Winds Are Currently Only Marginal For Development.

Conditions Could Become More Conducive While The Low Moves Northward Or Northeastward Ahead Of A Cold Front Over The Western Atlantic Ocean In A Few Days.

This System Has A Low Chance...20 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Medium Chance ...40 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.

2. A Low Pressure Area Has Formed Along The Coast Of Senegal Associated With A Strong Tropical Wave.

This Disturbance Is Already Showing Some Signs Of Organization... And Conditions Appear Favorable For A Tropical Depression To Form In A Few Days.

This System Has A Medium Chance...30 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A High Chance...80 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.

The Low Is Expected To Move Westward At Around 10 Mph Near Or South Of The Cape Verde Islands During The Next Couple Of Days And Then Northwestward Over The Open Eastern Atlantic.

Other Systems With Development Potential Beyond 48 Hours...

A Trough Of Low Pressure Could Form Over The Extreme Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico And Bay Of Campeche In A Few Days.

Some Development Of This System Is Possible By Midweek.

This System Has A Low Chance...Near 0 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Low Chance...20 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.


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