Tropical Outlook PM Sep 28

For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

1. Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Has Become A Little More
Concentrated Near The Center Of A Low Pressure System Located About 900 Miles Northeast Of The Northern Leeward Islands.

This Low Could Become A Tropical Depression Later Tonight Or On Sunday While It Moves Northeastward At 10 To 15 Mph.

This System Has A High Chance...70 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A High Chance...80 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.

2. A Trough Of Low Pressure Located Over The Southwestern Caribbean Sea Is Producing A Large Area Of Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms.

Slow Development Of This System Is Possible During The Next Couple Of Days While It Moves Slowly Northwestward...And This System Has A Low Chance...10 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical
Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours.

After That Time...Conditions Are Expected To Be More Conducive For Development When The System Moves Toward The Northwestern Caribbean Sea And The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico.

This System Has A Medium Chance...30 Percent...Of Becoming
A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.


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