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Tropical Outlook PM Sep 2

For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

1. An Elongated Area Of Low Pressure Is Producing Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms From The Eastern Caribbean Sea Across The Lesser Antilles And Into The Tropical Atlantic.

Although Upper-Level Winds Are Favorable...The Proximity Of Dry Air In The Middle Levels Of The Atmosphere Has Been Inhibiting Development Of This Disturbance.

However...Conditions Are Expected To Gradually Become More
Conducive While The System Moves Moves West-Northwestward At Around 10 Mph Near Puerto Rico And Hispaniola In The Next Few Days.

This System Has A Low Chance...20 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical
Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Medium Chance...50
Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.

Regardless Of Whether Or Not A Tropical Cyclone Forms...Brief
Periods Of Locally Heavy Rainfall And Gusty Winds Are Expected To
Affect Portions Of The Lesser Antilles Over The Next Day Or Two.

2. A Tropical Wave Located Over The Eastern Yucatan Peninsula And
Belize Is Moving Westward At About 10 Mph.

This System Is Expected To Move Into The Bay Of Campeche Late Tuesday...Where Some Development Is Possible Around Midweek.

This System Has A Low Chance...10 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Medium Chance... 30 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.

3. A Tropical Wave...Accompanied By A Low Pressure System...Has Moved Off Of The West Coast Of Africa About 650 Miles Southeast Of The Cape Verde Islands.

This Disturbance Is Beginning To Show Some Signs Of Organization ...And Conditions Are Expected To Be Marginally Favorable For Development Over The Next Few Days While The Low Moves West-Northwestward To Northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph.

This System Has A Low Chance...10 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical
Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Low Chance...20 Percent...
Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.


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