Tropical Outlook PM Sep 1

1. A Well-Defined Low Pressure System Is Located About 100 Miles East Of The Central Lesser Antilles.

Satellite Imagery Indicates That The Associated Thunderstorm Activity Has Increased And Is Showing Signs Of Organization. Upper-Level Winds Are Quite Conducive... But Proximity To Dry Air In The Middle- And Upper-Levels Of The Atmosphere Could Inhibit Development Of This Disturbance.

This System Has A Medium Chance...40 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Medium Chance... 50 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days
While It Moves Westward At 10 To 15 Mph Across The Caribbean Sea.

Regardless Of Whether Or Not A Tropical Cyclone Forms...Locally
Heavy Rainfall And Strong Gusty Winds Are Expected To Affect Portions Of The Lesser Antilles Today Through Monday.

Other Systems With Formation Potential Beyond 48 Hours...

A Tropical Wave Is Forecast To Move Across The Yucatan Peninsula
Into The Bay Of Campeche In A Couple Of Days When Conditions Are Expected To Become Marginally Favorable For Development.

This System Has A Low Chance...Near 0 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Low Chance...20 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days... As It Moves West-Northwestward At 10 Mph.


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