Tropical Outlook PM Oct 6

1. An Elongated Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms...The Remnants Of Karen...Is Located Over Southwestern Alabama...The Western Florida Panhandle...And Extends Southward Over The Waters Of The North-Central Gulf Of Mexico.

This Disturbance Is Moving East At About 15 Mph And Conditions Are Expected To Be Unfavorable For Redevelopment Of A Tropical Cyclone Before The Disturbance Merges With A Frontal System On Monday.

This System Has A Low Chance...Near 0 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Low Chance... Near 0 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days.

2. Showers And Thunderstorms Have Increased And Become A Little More Concentrated In Association With A Tropical Wave Located About 400 Miles Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands.

Some Gradual Development Of This Disturbance Is Possible Before Conditions Become Less Conducive Later This Week.

This System Has A Low Chance...20 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours...And A Medium Chance ...40 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 5 Days As It Moves Generally West-Northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph.


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