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Tropical Depression in Mid Atlantic Barely Holding On

Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Ast Sun Sep 29 2013

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...27.2n 47.6w
About 1165 Mi...1875 Km Ne Of The Northern Leeward Islands
About 1090 Mi...1750 Km Ese Of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 50 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1010 Mb...29.83 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Eleven
Was Located Near Latitude 27.2 North...Longitude 47.6 West.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H... And The Motion Is Expected To Become Slow And Erratic During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours... And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm By Monday.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1010 Mb...29.83 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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None.

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Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Ast Sun Sep 29 2013

Deep Convection Associated With The Depression Remains
Poorly-Organized And Is Occurring Primarily Over The Northern
Portion Of The Circulation...With Little Or No Evidence Of Banding
Features.

The Current Intensity Estimate Is Kept At 30 Kt In Agreement With A Dvorak Estimate From Sab. An Upper-Level Trough Just To The Northwest Continues To Impart Strong Shear Over The Cyclone...And The Low-Level Center Of The System Became Exposed Earlier Today.

More Recently...A Small Burst Of Convection Obscured The Center. Although The Environment Is Far From Ideal For Strengthening...The Intensity Model Consensus Continues To Indicate That The Cyclone Will Strengthen A Little Over The Next Day Or So...And This Is Also Shown In The Official Intensity Forecast Which Is Close To The Consensus.

It Should Be Noted... However...That The Latest Hwrf And Ecmwf Model Forecasts Show The System Practically Dissipated By The End Of The Forecast Period...So This Is A Low-Confidence Intensity Forecast.

The Motion Continues Toward The Northeast...Or 050/9. The Global
Models Depict A Mid-Tropospheric Ridge Building To The West And
Northwest Of The Tropical Cyclone Over The Next Several Days. This
Should Result In A Slowing Of The Forward Motion And...According To
Some Of The Track Guidance...A Clockwise Loop.

The Official Forecast...As Before...Also Indicates A Looping Track. Late In The Forecast Period...A Broad Mid-Tropospheric Trough Approaching From The West Should Cause The Cyclone To Move Northeastward. The Official Track Forecast Is Fairly Similar To The Latest Gfs Prediction.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 29/2100z 27.2n 47.6w 30 Kt 35 Mph
12h 30/0600z 27.3n 47.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph
24h 30/1800z 27.3n 46.4w 35 Kt 40 Mph
36h 01/0600z 26.9n 46.7w 40 Kt 45 Mph
48h 01/1800z 26.7n 47.2w 40 Kt 45 Mph
72h 02/1800z 27.0n 48.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph
96h 03/1800z 29.0n 48.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
120h 04/1800z 31.5n 46.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph

Forecaster Pasch


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