Tropical Depression Gabrielle Latest Advisory

By: 4Warn Weather Team
By: 4Warn Weather Team

GABRIELLE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.2N 68.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

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DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 66.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...AND MOVE EAST OF THE TURKS AND THE CAICOS ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY ON THURSDAY...NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE TURKS AND THE CAICOS ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


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