Tropical Depression 2; June 17 Evening Update

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2013

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
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Location...16.7n 88.9w
About 40 Mi...60 Km Nw Of Monkey River Town Belize
Maximum Sustained Winds...30 Mph...45 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 290 Degrees At 9 Mph...15 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb...29.74 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Interests In Belize...Guatemala...And Eastern Mexico Should Monitor
The Progress Of This System.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Two
Was Located Over Southern Belize Near Latitude 16.7 North...
Longitude 88.9 West.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/H. This General Motion With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected Over The Next Couple Of Days.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Will Move Over Belize And
Northern Guatemala Tonight And Early Tuesday...And Over Eastern
Mexico By Late Tuesday. The Depression Could Emerge Into The
Southern Bay Of Campeche By Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 30 Mph...45 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Weakening Will Occur While The Center Moves Over Land
Tonight And Tuesday. Some Strengthening Is Possible By Wednesday
If The Center Emerges Into The Bay Of Campeche.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Rainfall...The Depression Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall
Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches With Maximum Amounts Of 10 Inches
Across Portions Of Belize...Guatemala...And Northern Honduras...
Along With The Mexican States Of Chiapas...Tabasco...Veracruz...And
The Southern Yucatan Peninsula. These Rains Could Cause Flash
Flooding And Mudslides...Especially In Mountainous Areas.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2013

Tropical Depression Two Has Continued Moving West-Northwestward At Around 8 Kt This Evening Over Belize...As Best Can Be Determined From The Shortwave Infrared Imagery And Sparse Observational Data.

A Continued Track In This Direction...Though Slower...Should
Continue For The Next Two To Three Days Primarily Due To The
Influence Of A Weak Deep-Layer Ridge Over The Gulf Of Mexico.

At About Day Three...A Bend To The West Or Even West-Southwest Is
Anticipated...Which Is Common For Cyclones Reaching The Bay Of
Campeche Because Of The High Topography Of Mexico. The Track
Forecast Is Similar To...But Just South Of...The Previous Advisory
And Is Based Primarily Upon A Blend Of The Gfs And Ecmwf Global
Models.

Note That While A 96 Hr Forecast Point Is Provided To Show
Continuity Of The Track Over Mainland Mexico...It Is Not Likely That The Cyclone Will Survive Quite That Long Over The Mountainous
Terrain Of Mexico.

The Limited Surface Observations Suggest A Current Intensity Of 25
Kt. It Is Of Note That Before Landfall A 1904z Amsu Pass Indicated
A Modest Upper-Level Warm Core Had Developed...With The Cimss
Intensity Analysis Suggesting That It Might Have Briefly Reached
Tropical Storm Intensity.

The Depression Should Remain Over Land For About The Next 36 Hr...So Gradual Weakening Is Likely. As The Forecast Track Now Only Briefly Has The Cyclone Reaching The Bay Of Campeche While Moderate Southwesterly Vertical Shear Is Continuing...It Is Not Anticipated That The System Will Reach Tropical Storm Intensity Before Making A Second Landfall Over Mexico.

An Alternative Scenario Is That The System Will Dissipate Earlier While Over Central America Before Reaching The Bay Of Campeche.

The Primary Concern With This System Is Heavy Rainfall...Which Could Cause Significant Flooding Over Portions Of Central America And Eastern Mexico.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 18/0300z 16.7n 88.9w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Inland
12h 18/1200z 17.2n 90.3w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Inland
24h 19/0000z 17.8n 92.0w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Inland
36h 19/1200z 18.2n 93.3w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Inland
48h 20/0000z 18.5n 94.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph
72h 21/0000z 18.8n 96.3w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Inland
96h 22/0000z 18.5n 98.5w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
120h 23/0000z...Dissipated

Forecaster Landsea


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