May 23, 2013
SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight) Latest surface observations show DEW points in
the lower to MID 60s over our GA and AL zones with upper 60s to
lower 70s across north Florida. The visible satellite imagery
reveals a lack of clouds in the drier airmass north of the Florida
border. A FEW showers have developed this afternoon mainly over
the southeast Big Bend. Most activity should diminish after SUNSET
but will keep a slight to LOW end CHANCE POP in the forecast
overnight only for the Florida zones. MIN TEMPS will be will be in
the upper 60s o lower 70s.
(Friday through Sunday) The good news is that the 12 UTC global
models, except for the operational GFS, have come into much better
agreement than the previous model cycles. They all show gradual
organization and intensification of the weak low PRESSURE system
in the south central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. While the first
500 MB TROUGH (currently translating eastward over the Upper
Midwest) may slow this system and turn it more northward
initially, all the global models forecast a strong 500 mb RIDGE to
quickly build over the Central CONUS Sunday and Monday, turning the
system back to the west (and hopefully away from our forecast
area). This means we will probably not get the deluge forecast by
some of the NWP guidance in previous runs. However, we will still
get SCATTERED showers and storms over the southern portions of
our area AS deep MOISTURE lingers along a trough that`s expected
to develop near the Gulf Coast to the east of the low. Temperatures
will be near average, as will RAIN chances (in FL). Rain chances
will be below average in central GA and AL.
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