SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Cool high pressure will build across the area for Monday, in the
wake of tonights clipper-type frontal passage. This reinforcing
airmass will likely keep high temperatures Monday afternoon a
couple degrees cooler than today. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected through the afternoon.
Conditions will change rapidly Monday night as the surface high
slides quickly east and allows for a brief period of return flow
during the overnight hours. A weak surface trough is then forecast
to develop along the northern Gulf coast as another shortwave
drops into the mean eastern trough. Expect to see enough
isentropic lift late Monday night, for scattered showers to reach
the panhandle and SE Alabama.
By Tuesday morning, the guidance becomes much more divergent. The
latest GFS has a much more pronounced sfc trough/warm front across
the area during the day, which leads to a more concentrated and
heavier region of rainfall across the panhandle and Big Bend. The
remaining guidance is much more diffuse with the boundary and
weaker with the upper support, generating lighter but possibly
more widespread rainfall. With the GFS currently the outlier in
terms of QPF and coverage, have leaned towards the ECMWF for the
forecast on Tuesday. This yields a broad area of likely PoPs over
the western half of the area. However, rainfall totals should
remain rather light.
With the distinct possibility that the boundary may linger across
the region through Tuesday night, will keep some chance PoPs in
the forecast across the area.
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