Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Thursday]...
In the wake of a cold front, the regional weather pattern will
largely be controlled by a surface high pressure ridge settling into
the Southeast, and an increasingly zonal flow pattern aloft. This
will set up a stretch of dry weather during the mid-week period.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be limited by reduced mixing layer
depth underneath a subsidence inversion - highs should mainly be
from the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Tuesday Night, as the surface
ridge axis becomes centered squarely on our area, a light freeze
remains possible over much of the area. From a probabilistic view,
both CIPS Analog guidance and our local confidence tool indicate
roughly a 70-90% chance of low temperatures hitting 32 degrees.
Despite these high values, the most likely scenario at this point
appears to be lows around 30 degrees inland, with perhaps only 1-2
hours below freezing. Given the locally-defined duration requirement
of 2 hours of temperatures of at least 32 degrees for a freeze, we
should be very close to the criteria. Therefore, we have held off on
the issuance of a Freeze Watch at this point, but subsequent shifts
can re-evaluate that later tonight. Deeper mixing and the beginning
of a warm air advection pattern on Thursday should boost highs
closer to 70 degrees once again.

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