SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...
A cold front is expected to sweep through the forecast area Monday
afternoon as a longwave trough in eastern North America amplifies
slightly. Deep northwesterly flow on the back side of the trough
will allow for a cold air advection pattern across much of the
eastern CONUS, with a surface high pressure shifting from the
Canadian Rockies to near our forecast area through the course of
the short term period (Monday to Wednesday). Despite the cold
front passage, dry air across much of the region (with PWATS about
60-80% of normal per blended TPW product) will preclude any rain
for our forecast area.
Regarding freeze potential, such conditions seem more probable on
Tuesday Night versus Monday Night. Although CAA will be setting in
on Monday Night, a fairly strong surface pressure gradient is
expected to keep winds at least in the 4-5 knot range which should
provide sufficient mixing to preclude sub-freezing temperatures.
However, for Tuesday Night, the surface ridge axis builds into our
area overnight with a fairly dry air mass (PWATS around 0.35") and
clear skies. Guidance is consistent in the 28-32 degree range and
CIPS Analog guidance shows about 80-90% probabilities of a freeze
down to the Gulf coast. Therefore the odds are that we will have a
widespread light freeze, but a hard freeze is not expected
(significant cold air should remain well north of our area).