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Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Saturday]...
Strong vertical motion fields will develop Thursday morning as a
strong 500mb vorticity max (currently over TX) interacts with a
developing frontal wave over east GA. Despite the cold front being
east of our forecast area by then, there will be a favorable enough
combination of deep layer moisture and ascent for widespread rain. All
of the latest NWP guidance forecast a pronounced mid tropospheric
dry slot developing over our region Thursday afternoon, so the
rain will end from southwest to northeast during the mid to late
afternoon hours. The combination of cold air advection, abundant
clouds, and perhaps even some evaporative cooling (rain falling
through a drying boundary layer) will make for a relatively chilly
and dreary day, especially given the recent stretch of
unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 40s in our northwest zones to mid 60s southeast, but that is
misleading because the highs will occur during the morning hours.
Temperatures across much of the forecast area will be in the 50s,
and gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

Skies will clear Thursday night as the frontal wave over east GA will
be moving off the mid Atlantic coast. The MOS consensus shows a
light freeze likely north and west of Tallahassee, with a near-
freeze from Tallahassee to Cross City. However, this seems
unlikely given the expectation that surface winds will remain at
5 MPH or higher through the night. We blended in several "high
resolution" model temperature forecasts, which have shown skill in
these situations when the boundary layer is well-mixed and "run-
away radiational cooling" does not occur. The resulting low
temperature forecast keeps temperatures above freezing, though it
may be close in portions of Southeast Alabama. Some of the MOS are
forecasting a light freeze for Saturday morning as well, but the
large scale synoptic pattern doesn`t look particularly favorable at
this time. Perhaps some patchy frost could be a concern though.
Otherwise, fair weather and near-average high temperatures are
expected Friday and Saturday.


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