Short Term Update

SHORT TERM (Wednesday through Friday)...
The 500 mb height pattern is forecast to temporarily deamplify, as
the deep, positive tilted long wave trough currently over the
central CONUS lifts out east northeastward. At long last this more
progressive large scale pattern will help drive a stubbornly slow
cold front (currently a quasi-stationary front just to our
northwest) through our forecast area, though it will be a slow
process. The latest NWP guidance is in pretty good agreement with
the timing of this front, as they have it entering our western zones
Wednesday, bisecting our forecast area from northeast to southwest
Wednesday night, then finally exiting our eastern zones Thursday.
During its slow trek, a frontal wave is forecast to develop
Wednesday night and Thursday as a potent vorticity max (currently
at the base of the aforementioned long wave trough over NM) draws
near. The deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing will increase during
this process, which is when the highest PoP will be. Despite being a
fairly energetic system, the probability of surface-based
thunderstorms are virtually nil, though an elevated storm or two is
not out of the question during the time of strongest vertical motion
Thursday morning. Widespread rain is expected with this event, with
the storm total QPF ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches in GA and AL, to
only 0.25 inches around Cross City. The rain will end Thursday
evening.

Wednesday will be the last in what has been a recent string of
unseasonably warm temperatures. This will make Thursday`s cool-down
feel all-the-more chilly, as temperatures remain in the 50s all day
under cloudy skies and breezy conditions. (Temperatures may fall
into the upper 40s around Dothan & Albany late afternoon). Non-zero
wind speeds and some lingering clouds will likely prevent a freeze
Friday morning, but lows will still drop into the upper 30s. Highs
on Friday will be in the 50s with partial clearing.


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