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Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will be disrupted on Thursday by a mid/upper
level shortwave. The disturbance is forecast to open up and weaken
as it passes over the Southeast. At the surface, the low that
develops as a result of the upper disturbance will help lift the
warm front out of the local area, and by the end of the day we
should have a break from the on and off showers that have plagued
the region for so long. Ridging will build back in aloft rather
quickly of Friday. A weak cold front will pull up just to our
border on Friday, but with deep layer flow out of the
south/southeast, the front should stall just west of us. Thus,
rain chances will remain low to none on Friday with only a slight
chance across the western panhandle of Florida and SE Alabama.
There is the possibility of a large area of rain developing in the
central Gulf and moving northeast, clipping our western counties
on Friday morning, but confidence in this solution is low.

Temperatures will remain well above average through the period as
a result of the upper level ridging and onshore flow. Expect
middle to upper 70s across the SE Big Bend tomorrow, with slightly
cooler temperatures expected elsewhere, where fog and low clouds
are slower to dissipate. On Friday, all locations should warm into
the middle and upper 70s with 80 degrees a possibility across our
southeastern counties.


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