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Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...
After a chilly start, temps will rebound nicely during the day on
Wednesday as high pressure moves east of the area and winds turn
southerly. Look for lower to mid 70s in most areas for afternoon
highs. Looking ahead to the next frontal system to impact the
region, low pressure will track from near the TX/OK Panhandles
Wednesday afternoon northeast to Southern Lake Michigan by Thursday
afternoon and then to far southern Ontario by Friday morning. The
trailing cold front will reach our western zones by around 16Z
Thursday and clear the lower Suwannee by around 02Z. These precise
timing estimates are possible due to the fact that there is very
good agreement among the various models with the movement and timing
of this system. There also appears to be consensus that a high
shear/low CAPE environment will precede and accompany the front,
very typical of winter systems crossing the eastern Gulf states.
While instability may be a limiting factor, there will likely be
sufficient frontogenetic forcing in a narrow area of strong
theta-e advection just ahead of the front for the area to see
marginally severe storms. SPC does have the entire area outlooked
for a slight risk for severe storms. Damaging wind gusts would be
the primary threat. While we are confident enough to go with
categorical PoPs for most of the region on Thursday, we will hold
off on any severe wording and simply mention gusty winds.


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