SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
A slow-moving cold front, southwesterly flow just above the
surface, and an approaching shortwave, are helping set the stage
for a decent overrunning event through Wednesday afternoon.
Guidance indicates that the stongest isentropic lift will occur
from 12z-21z Wednesday, before the shortwave axis crosses the
area and dries things out. With this in mind, have painted
categorical PoPs for the eastern two-thirds of the area for
Wednesday, ending from west to east in the afternoon. Storm total
rainfall amounts are expected to average between .5 and 1.0 inches
through Wednesday evening. However, a few locations could see up
to around 1.5 inches.
Temperatures will be cool on Wednesday, due to the combination of
rain, clouds, and cool northerly surface winds. Expect highs to
only reach the lower to mid 50s (except for a few 60s in the
southeastern Big Bend).
By Thursday, a drier airmass will move into the region as the
shortwave shoves the frontal boundary well away from the region.
Heights will be on the rise behind the front, which will limit
post-frontal cooling. Expect lows Thursday and Friday mornings in
upper 30s to lower 40s, with highs on Thursday in the lower to mid
60s (pretty close to normal for this time of year).