Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The weather pattern will begin to transition on Tuesday as high
pressure across the Western Atlantic and a frontal system
approaches from the west. This frontal system is anticipated to be
rather weak by the time it approaches the forecast area as the
northern stream energy breaks away from the southern portion of
the wave, leaving a weakly amplified trough to slide through with
the frontal boundary on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. While
low level moisture has recovered with the last couple of days of
easterly and now southerly flow, the mid and upper levels remain
quite dry. Couple this with the lack of any appreciable dynamical
forcing and that sets up for a frontal passage (if it makes it)
with little fanfare. Rain chances will be greatest across the
northern portion of the forecast area, but even then chances are
only around 40 percent on Wednesday with overall low rainfall
amounts (less than 0.25 inches). As what little dynamical support
there is pulls away on Wednesday afternoon, lingering cloud cover
will persist through Wednesday night with improving conditions
thereafter.

Temperatures throughout the period will continue the above normal
trend. Highs will generally remain in the 70s. One interesting set
up with the southerly flow on Tuesday will be the enhancement of a
local sea breeze (even in December). Because near shore water
temperatures are in the mid and upper 60s, these coastal sea
breezes will limit afternoon temperatures along the coast of
Apalachee Bay to only the upper 60s. Overnight temperatures will
also remain above normal with values in the low to mid 50s.


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