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Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday]...
The 500 mb height pattern will be rather zonal, with the jet
stream fairly far to the north for this time of year. This means a
rather slow progression of weather systems over the south, so the
surface ridge currently dominating our weather pattern will
remain through at least the weekend. The strong subsidence
inversion currently over us (which has made it so difficult to scour
out the clouds the past few days) will slowly weaken and lift each
day, allowing for deeper mixing and progressively warmer
temperatures. Because the NWP guidance seems to be under-doing the
strength of this inversion in recent model runs, our high
temperature forecast for Friday is a few degrees cooler than the
MOS consensus (but still in the lower 70s). Otherwise we followed
the tightly- clustered MOS consensus for our temperature
forecast. This will be a mild period, with lows in the mid to
upper 40s and highs in the mid 70s. In fact, there could even be
some upper 70s around Cross City Sunday afternoon. The PoP will be
less than 10%.


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