SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...
A short wave will deepen as it moves across the lower Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday with an upper low closing off as this energy
moves into Georgia Wednesday NIGHT. Short term models are in pretty
good agreement bringing a significant return of MOISTURE along with
RAIN chances back to the region. However, the NAM is much more
bullish than the GFS on POPS. Time HEIGHT cross sections show most
of the moisture confined below 700mb with very dry AIR in the MID
levels. Will take a blend of MOS PoPs leaning closer to the GFS and
taper highest north (40%) to lowest south (20%) on Wednesday. Then
northeast (40-50%) to southwest (20%) Wednesday night. Finally, PoPs
will be tapered east to west (30% to NIL) on Thursday as the
SHORTWAVE begins to dampen out and move off to the northeast. Either
way, QPF amounts should be light through the period. MAX TEMPS will
be below seasonal levels while min temps should be within a few
degrees of NORMAL.