Severe Weather Threat thru Oct 31

Thu Oct 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Pattern Of The Past Several Days Remains In Place Across The
Conus...With A Deep Ern Trough And Blocking/Weak Split Flow Across The Wrn States.

A Cold Front Will Continue To Drift Swd Into The Fl Straits...With Any Risk Of Thunderstorms Expected To Remain Just S-E Of The Keys And Se Fl Coast.

Shallow Lake Effect Convective Bands Will Also Persist Today In The Lee Of Lakes Erie And Especially Ontario. Though Sporadic/Isolated Lightning Flashes Have Been Observed Overnight...The Magnitude And Depth Of Buoyancy Will Remain Marginal At Best For Lightning Production...Prior To The Lake Bands Weakening As Low-Level Flow Veers To More Nwly Tonight.

The Primary Threat For A Few Thunderstorms In The Conus Will Begin This Afternoon And Continue Into Tonight For The Higher Terrain Of Ne Az And Wrn Nm. Ascent And Gradual Moistening In Advance Of A Weak Srn Stream Trough Will Contribute To The Development Of Weak Buoyancy And An Associated Risk For Deep Convection.


Fri Oct 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Ewd Across The Atlantic Seaboard As Another Trough Moves Across The Srn Rockies. Thunderstorms May Develop Near The Axis Of The Trough In The Higher Terrain Of Nm As Sfc Temps Heat Up During The Day. Limited Moisture Return And Weak Instability In The Srn Rockies Should Keep Convection Well Below Severe Limits Friday And Friday Night.

Thunderstorm Development Will Also Be Possible In South Tx Where Moderate Instability May Develop Friday Afternoon But This Activity Is Also Expected To Remain Below Severe Limits.


Sat Oct 26 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Move Sewd Into The Srn Plains
On Saturday. At The Sfc...Flow Will Become Sly Across The Srn Plains
As High Pressure In The Cntrl Gulf Coast States Moves Ewd Away From The Region. This Will Enable Moisture To Return Nwd Into Wcntrl And Northwest Tx Allowing For Some Destabilization Saturday Afternoon.

Thunderstorm Development Should Occur Along The Instability Axis
Across The Low Rolling Plains Ssewd Into The Wrn Tx Hill Country.
Forecast Soundings For 21z/Sat At Abilene Show Sbcape Values Of 1000 To 1200 J/Kg With About 30 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear. This Along With 20 To 30 Kt Of Low-Level Flow Could Be Enough For A Marginal Severe Threat. A Few Strong Wind Gusts May Occur With Convection That Can Develop Where Instability Becomes Maximized.


Oct 27-31 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Near The Tx Coastal Plains And Move This Feature Ewd Into The Cntrl Gulf Coast States On Sunday/Day4.

Thunderstorms Will Be Possible During The Day On Sunday From Se Tx Ewd Into Srn La.

The Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Move Across Florida On Monday/Day 5 As A Large Upper-Level Low Develops Over The Wrn United States.

As Mid-Level Flow Becomes More Southwesterly Across The
Scntrl States Monday Night...Low-Level Moisture Is Forecast To
Return Nwd Into The Srn And Cntrl Plains.

Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Monday Night Into Tuesday/Day 6 From The Srn And Cntrl Plains Newd Into The Mid-Ms Valley Along The Axis Of A Broad Low-Level Jet.

The Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Eject Enewd Across The Cntrl States On Wednesday/Day 7 Which Would Make Thunderstorms Again Possible Along An Axis Of Instability From East Tx Nnewd Into The Mid Ms Valley.

At This Point...A Severe Threat May Develop In The Cntrl U.S From
Tuesday Afternoon Through Wednesday Night Ahead Of The Swrn U.S. Trough. Deep Layer Shear Will Probably Be Adequate For Severe Storms But The Amount Of Instability That Will Be Available Ahead Of The System Remains Uncertain. For This Reason...Will Not Add An Enhanced Threat Area Attm.

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