Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 9

Sat Nov 2 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Progressive Yet Amplified Pattern Will Continue During The Period
With One Upper Level Trough Moving Ewd Towards The East Coast ...While Strong Height Falls Accompanies Another Upper Trough As It Moves Inland Across The Pacific Northwest/Nrn Rockies. In Between These Systems...Ridging Will Shift Ewd And Extend N-S Across The Plains States.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Move Sewd Across The Central/Srn
Fl Peninsula. A Cold Front Associated With The Pac Nw Upper Level
Trough Will Move Quickly Inland And Extend From Ern Mt Swwd To The
Great Basin By 12z Sun.

Central/Srn Fl...

A Moist Atmosphere /Lower 70s Sfc Dew Points And Pw Values Of Around 1.75 Inches/ Will Exist In Advance Of The Cold Front As It Moves Se During The Aftn/Evening Sat. Poor Lapse Rates... However ...Will Result In Rather Modest Instability With Aftn Mlcape Between 500 And 1500 J/Kg. Scattered Tstms Are Expected In The Vicinity Of The Front As It Moves Off The S Fl Coast During The Evening Hours.

Ohio Valley...

Cold Mid-Level Temperatures And Ascent Associated With An Impulse
Within The Broad Cyclonic Flow May Result In A Few Lightning Strikes
With Shallow Convection During The Aftn Hours.

Pac Nw...

Deepening Wly Flow Will Develop In The Post-Frontal Environment Sat Along With Steepening Lapse Rates. Meager Instability Will Likely
Develop West Of The Coastal Range...Where Sporadic Lightning Strikes May Occur Mainly During The Aftn/Evening.
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Sun Nov 3 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Offshore Boundary Layer Flow Will Be Observed Along The Atlantic/ Gulf Coasts With The Exception Of Deep South Tx. Even So... Trajectories Across The Wrn Gulf Basin Will Not Support Meaningful Moisture Return Across The Conus East Of The Rockies.

Elsewhere...Sct Shallow Elevated Convection May Develop Across Parts Of Nrn Mexico Into Srn Nm But Updrafts Are Expected To Fall Short Of Heights Necessary For Lightning Discharge.
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Mon Nov 4 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Srn Rockies To Central Plains...

Latest Model Guidance Is In General Agreement That Significant
Troughing Aloft Will Evolve Across The Wrn U.S. Into The Day3
Period.

In Advance Of The Long Wave One Notable Short-Wave Trough Will Eject Across The Upper Ms Valley And Brief Short-Wave Ridging Is Expected Across The Plains Until Very Late In The Period.

Current Thinking Is Low Level Trajectories Will Become More
Favorable For Moisture To Return Across Tx Late In The Period When
60sf Sfc Dew Points Should Advance Into Cntrl Tx By 05/12z.

Leading Edge Of This Moisture Surge Should Not Interact With Frontal Zone Across The Plains Until After Midnight When Llj Is Expected To Intensify Across The High Plains Of Ok/Ks. Elevated Convection Should Develop Within This Warm Advection Zone Likely Rooted Above 850mb. Given The Forecast Instability It Appears Buoyancy Will Be Insufficient To Warrant More Than Small Hail.

Otherwise...Isolated Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop Across
The Srn Rockies As Lowering Heights And Cooling Mid Level
Temperatures Enhance Lapse Rates Such That Convection Should
Evolve...Especially During The Afternoon/Evening Hours.
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Nov 5-9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Progressive Long Wave Trough Will Migrate Into The High Plains Late
Tuesday Which Will Encourage A Nwd Advance Of Boundary Layer
Moisture Across Tx Into Ok/Ern Ks. While Deep Layer Shear Will
Undoubtedly Increase Across The Immediate Warm Sector...Forecast
Lapse Rates Are Weak-Marginal Which Should Negate Mucape Across The Srn Plains. Even So...Thunderstorms Are Expected To Evolve Along/Ahead Of The Cold Front But Instability Should Be Insufficient To Support Severe Thunderstorms.

Convection Should Spread Downstream Into The Ms Valley Day5 But Instability Is Expected To Remain Weak Across This Region As Well.


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