Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 30

Sat Nov 23 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Sewd Across The Great Lakes Region And Oh Valley Today As An Upper-Level Low Moves Into The Desert Southwest.

At The Sfc...A Frontal Boundary Will Remain In Place Across South Fl Along Which Thunderstorms May Develop This Afternoon.

Elsewhere...Elevated Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Within A Region Of Upper-Level Divergence Over The Srn High Plains This Afternoon And Evening.

Other Thunderstorms May Develop Near The Center Of An Upper-Level Low Over The Desert Southwest.

None Of The Thunderstorm Activity Is Expected To Be Severe Today Or


Sun Nov 24 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Expansive Cp Air Mass Will Encompass Much Of The Central And Ern Conus...As Sfc High Pressure Becomes Established Near The Mid-Ms And Lower-Oh Valleys.

Farther W...A Large Closed Upper Low Will Migrate Ewd Across The Southwest...Before Beginning To Dig Sewd Early Mon Morning... Aiding In Widespread Shower Development Across Srn Plains / Tx.

Buoyancy Will Be Limited As A Cold Air Mass Remains Entrenched Over The Region...Although A Few Lightning Strikes Are Possible Within A Weak Low-Level Waa Regime Across S And Central Tx Early Mon Morning.


Mon Nov 25 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Primary Feature Of Interest This Period Will Be An Upper Trough
Initially Positioned Over The Srn High Plains That Will Dig Sewd
Across Tx.

Weak Sfc Cyclogenesis Is Forecast To Occur Ahead Of This System Over The Wrn Gulf...Before The Low Tracks Newd Towards The Central Gulf Coast By Early Tue Morning.

A Nrn Stream Upper Trough Will Move Sewd Towards The Upper Great Lakes.

A Cold/Stable Air Mass Will Remain Entrenched Across Most Of The Central And Ern Conus...Limiting Convective Potential To Portions Of The Gulf Coast.

Central Gulf Coast...

A Modified Gulf Air Mass Will Remain Offshore Through Most Of The
Period...As A Weak Sfc Low And Attendant Warm Front Track Newd Out Of The Wrn Gulf And Into Sern La By Early Tue Morning.

Warm Advection Atop A Cold Boundary Layer Amidst Meager Elevated Buoyancy Will Support Widespread Showers And A Few Thunderstorms.

A Brief Window For Near Sfc-Based Convection May Exist Invof The Low As It Moves Onshore Sern La Early Tue Morning...But Any Svr Threat Should Remain Limited By Poor Low- And Mid-Level Lapse Rates.


Nov 26-30 Convective Outlook

A Srn Stream Upper Trough Will Accelerate Ewd While Moving Parallel
To The Gulf Coast...Before Acquiring A Negative Tilt And Ejecting
Newd Over The Atlantic.

An Associated Sfc Low Preceding The Upper Trough Is Forecast To Track Newd From Sern La Into Srn Ga Or Nrn Fl On Tue/D4...With An Accompanying Intrusion Of A Partially Modified Gulf Air Mass Occurring Across The Ern Gulf Coast And Sern Atlantic Coast.

A Cold Front Attendant To The Sfc Low Is Largely Expected To Remain Over The Ern Gulf Until The Morning Of Wed/D5 Before Moving Across The Fl Peninsula.

While Forecast Wind Profiles Will Be Favorable For Some Rotating
Storms Where Sfc-Based Convection Is Possible /Invof The Sfc Low And Near/S Of The Warm Front/...Any Substantial Svr Threat Is Expected To Be Tempered By Marginal Buoyancy And A Limited Warm Sector Along The Gulf Coast.

Additionally...Poor Phasing With The Strongest Flow Aloft And Coldest Midlevel Temperatures Accompanying The Upstream Upper Trough Is Likely.

The Sfc Low Is Expected To Advance Farther Inland/Newd Overnight...Before Reaching Or Redeveloping Over The Wrn Atlantic.

The Above Mentioned Limiting Factors...Along With Uncertainties In Track/Timing Of Sfc Low Progression...Precludes A Highlight Of 30 Percent Svr Probabilities For Tue/D4...Although A Categorical Risk Area May Still Be Introduced In Future Outlooks.

In The Wake Of The Aforementioned Upper Trough...Large-Scale
Cyclonic Flow Aloft Will Prevail Across The Ern Two-Thirds Of The

Several Embedded Disturbances Will Shift Sewd Out Of S-Cntrl Canada Across The Great Plains...Reinforcing A Dry And Stable Air Mass Across Much Of The Nation...And Subsequently...Low Potential
For Svr.

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