Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 24

Mon Nov 18 Convective Outlook
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Srn New England Monday Morning...

Intense Negatively Tilted Short Wave Trough Is Forecast To Lift
Rapidly Newd Across New England And Quebec Early In The Period In Association With A Very Strong Mid/Upper Level Jet Streak Translating Across The Region.

At The Surface...A Deep Low Will Move Newd Into Quebec With A Cold Front Arcing Swd From The Low.

The Front Will Move Rapidly Ewd Across Central Me And Srn New
England By Early Afternoon...Continuing Sewd/Swd Off The Southern
Atlantic Coast And Gulf Coast During The Afternoon.

Parts Of Srn New England...

Sufficient Low Level Moisture With Surface Dew Points Of 55-60f Will
Spread Nwd Into Parts Of Srn New England Ahead Of The Advancing Cold Front.

Despite Limited Buoyancy...Forced Ascent Along The Front Is Expected To Maintain Potential For A Low-Topped Squall Line With
Embedded Bow Echoes Into The Morning Over Ern Parts Of Srn New
England.

Although It Is Unclear If Much Lightning Will Be Generated Within The Linear Convective System...Very Strong Low Level Winds /60-70 Kt Within The Lowest 1-3 Km Agl/ Indicate Potential For Damaging Winds To Occur For A Few Hours During The Morning Before The Convective System Moves Offshore.

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Tue Nov 19 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Large Area Of Cp High Pressure Will Move Through The Ern U.S.
Tuesday While A Lee Trough Develops Across The Plains.

Increasing Sly Low-Level Winds In Gradient Zone Between The Lee Trough And Sfc Ridge Will Contribute To Very Limited Moisture Return Through A Portion Of Tx.

Farther North...Models Indicate A Low Amplitude Shortwave Trough Will Move Through The Cntrl Plains And Mid Ms Valley Region Tuesday Night Accompanied By Steepening Lapse Rates In The 700-500 Mb Layer.

Some Mid-Level Convection May Develop In Association With This Feature From Ern Ks Into The Mid-Ms Valley Where Instability May Become Sufficient For A Few Lightning Strikes Late Tuesday Night.

Showers And A Thunderstorm Or Two May Also Develop Over Srn Fl Tuesday Afternoon In Vicinity Of Swd Advancing Front.

Elsewhere Thunderstorm Potential Will Remain Low This Period.

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Nov 20-24 Convective Outlook

Day 4-5 /Wednesday And Thursday/...Gfs Has Trended Toward The Ecwmf Regarding A Cutoff Low Expected To Evolve Across The Swrn U.S. During Thursday /Day 5/ With A Corresponding Downstream Ridge Building Over The Srn Plains.

A Progressive Nrn Stream Trough Will Usher In A Polar Front That Will Advance Swd Through The Srn Plains And Interact With Returning Partially Modified Gulf Air Late Day 4 Into Day 5.

While Thunderstorms May Develop Along The Swd Progressing Cold Front Over Portions Of The Srn Plains...A Building Srn Stream Upper Ridge And Weak Shear Should Limit Any Severe Potential.

Day 6-8...A Large Area Of Cp Sfc High Pressure Will Build Through
The Ern Half Of The U.S. Day 6 With Offshore Flow Persisting Through
Much Of The Rest Of This Period.


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