Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 15

Fri Nov 8 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Compact Mid-Level Impulse Embedded Within A Belt Of Moderate
Quasi-Zonal Flow Will Track From The Nrn Plains To The Great Lakes
Region...While An Attendant Sfc Cyclone Also Tracks Ewd.

Within The Warm Sector Of The Cyclone...Scarce Low-Level Moisture Supporting Very Little Buoyancy Should Prevent Any More Than An Isolated Lightning Strike Or Two From Occurring Amidst Areas Of

Elsewhere Across The Conus...Near-Zero Buoyancy Should Preclude Thunderstorm Development.


Sat Nov 9 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move From The Nrn Plains Into The Great
Lakes Region On Saturday.

At The Sfc...High Pressure Will Dominate The Srn U.S As A Cold Front Advances Ewd Across The Mid To Upper Ms Valley And Swd Across The Cntrl And Srn Plains.

In Response...A Dry Airmass Will Remain In Place Across Most Of The Conus Limiting Convective Development.

An Isolated Thunderstorm Could Develop Saturday Afternoon Across The Fl Keys But Convective Coverage Is Not Expected To Reach The 10 Percent Threshold.


Sun Nov 10 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

While Models Indicate That Mid/Upper Flow Over The Central And
Eastern Pacific May Undergo Considerable Amplification During This
Forecast Period...Little Change To The Downstream Pattern Across
Much Of The U.S. Is Expected From Saturday Into Sunday.

A Transition From Broadly Anticyclonic To Cyclonic Flow Does Appear
Likely Across Parts Of The Northern Plains Into The Upper
Mississippi Valley Late Sunday Into Sunday Night...On The Southern
Fringe Of A Digging/Intensifying Short Wave Impulse Emerging From
The Arctic Latitudes.

At The Same Time...A Low-Amplitude Impulse Emerging From The Subtropical Eastern Pacific Is Forecast To Migrate Eastward Into And Through The Southern Plateau/Rockies Region.

However...Little Appreciable Destabilization Is Currently Expected
In Association With Either Feature...And The Risk For Thunderstorm
Activity Is Expected To Remain Negligible.


Nov 11-15 Convective Outlook

The Medium Range Guidance Indicates That Significant Upper Trough Amplification Across The Eastern U.S. Is Probable During The Early To Middle Portions Of Next Week...Accompanied By A Substantive Reinforcing Low-Level Cold/Dry Intrusion Across Most Areas East Of The Rockies.

This Should Contribute To The Maintenance Of Generally Stable Conditions With Low To Negligible Convective Potential Into The Latter Portions Of Next Week...When Upper Pattern Developments
Become Increasingly Unclear Due To Large Spread Among The Models And Within The Various Model Ensemble Data.

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