Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 14

Thu Nov 7 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Deep Ascent Preceding A Compact Mid-Level Vort Max Currently Moving Ashore Over The Pacific Nw Will Support Marginal Destabilization This Afternoon Into The Early Evening Across Parts Of The Nrn Great Basin.

Forecast Soundings Indicate Narrow Cape Profiles Extending Sufficiently Deep Into Icing Layers Aloft For A Few Lightning Strikes Across Sern Wa And Nern Ore Into Cntrl/Nrn Id.

Also...An Isolated Lightning Strike Cannot Be Ruled Out With Banded
Precipitation Over The Great Lakes Region Owing To The Influence Of
Relatively Warmer Water Temperatures Beneath A Mid/Upper-Level

Elsewhere Across The Conus...Statically Stable Thermodynamic
Profiles Will Preclude Thunderstorm Development.


Fri Nov 8 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Across The Ern Seaboard Into The Wrn Atlantic On Friday As Another Upper-Level Trough Moves Into The Nrn Plains.

At The Sfc...High Pressure Will Dominate The Scntrl And Ern States As A Cold Front Advances Ewd Into The Cntrl And Nrn Plains.

Another Front Is Forecast To Remain South Of The Fl Peninsula.
Shallow Convection May Occur Across Srn Fl In The Moist Post-Frontal Airmass But The Chance For Thunderstorms Is Expected To Remain Below 10 Percent.


Sat Nov 9 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Large Scale Flow Is Expected To Gradually Become More Zonal Into The Day3 Period As Strongest Flow Aloft Retreats Toward The
U.S./Canadian Border. While Heights Will Rise Slightly Across The
Conus...Boundary Layer Moisture Is Expected To Struggle To Advance
Inland And Instability Should Remain Meager Saturday.

One Area Where Weak Convection Could Evolve Is Along The Immediate Wa Coast Just North Of Main Jet Core. Low Level Lapse Rates Should Steepen Across This Region As Wly Flow Deepens And Shallow Convection May Be Noted In Proximity To Slightly More Buoyant Marine Influence. Cloud Heights Should Not Attain Levels Necessary For Lightning Discharge Except In A Very Isolated Case.


Nov 10-14 Convective Outlook

Large Scale Pattern Will Remain Hostile Regarding Nwd Transport Of
Quality Moisture/Instability Into The Ern Conus Through The Medium
Range Period.

While Weak Convection May Be Noted At Times In Association With Transitory Short-Wave Troughs...The Threat Of Organized Severe Thunderstorms Is Expected To Remain Low This Period.

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