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Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 10

Sun Nov 3 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Dry Air Mass Will Remain Over The Majority Of The United States
Through The Rest Of Sunday...With No Threat Of Severe
Thunderstorms.
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Mon Nov 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Models Remain Consistent Showing A Deep Longwave Trough Will Evolve On Monday Across The Wrn States Moving Toward The Rockies By 12z Tuesday.

With The Approach/Development Of This Trough...The Current Trough Located Over The Nrn Rockies To Great Basin Will Progress
Newd From The Nrn/Central Plains Into Nrn Ontario During Day 2.

The Changes In The Mid-Upper Levels Will Result In Neutral Height
Changes Across The Srn/Central High Plains...While Weak Falls Should Occur Across The Higher Terrain To The West.

Srn Rockies To Central Plains...

Diurnal Heating Should Prove Adequate For Tstm Development Late
Monday Afternoon Across The Higher Terrain Of The Srn Rockies As
Some Cooling Around 500 Mb Aids In Steepening Lapse Rates.

Weak Instability And Expected Isolated Coverage Of Tstms Continue To Preclude The Introduction Of Low Severe Probabilities.

Farther E...There Will Continue To Be A Lack Of Stronger Forcing For
Ascent...Given Weak To Neutral Height Falls Over The High Plains.

This Suggests An Increase In Low Level Waa Within The Nose Of A
Strengthening Llj And Low Level Moistening Will Be The Primary
Factors Supporting Elevated Convection Monday Night From Sern Co
Into The Central Plains.

The Presence Of Weak Instability And Weak Effective Bulk Shear Monday Night Within The Corridor Of Waa Aided Convection Suggests Elevated Updrafts Should Have Limited Ability To Support The Development Of Severe Hail.

Thus...This Outlook Will Maintain A Less Than 5 Percent Probability For Severe Storms.
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Tue Nov 5 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Southern Plains...

Weak Height Falls Will Spread Across The Srn High Plains Late In The Period Tuesday As Progressive Long Wave Trough Shifts East Of The Rockies By 06/12z.

In Response To This Long Wave...Llj Will Initially Focus Across Ks Before Veering And Translating Downstream Into The Mid Ms Valley By Early Evening...Then Into The Cntrl Great Lakes After Midnight.

Ascent...Induced Primarily By Warm Advection...Will Shift Across The Cntrl Plains Into The Great Lakes And Contribute Substantially Towards Convection...Especially Across The Plains...And Potentially Heavy Frontal/Pre-Frontal Precipitation.

Of Particular Concern Will Be The Potential For Destabilization
Across The Srn Plains Within Entrance Region Of Mid Level Polar Jet.

Latest Model Guidance Suggests Considerable Clouds/Precipitation
Will Inhibit Instability And The Only Region Where Significant
Boundary Layer Heating Will Be Experienced Will Be Across The Srn
High Plains Within An Environment Of Increasingly Veered Flow
Through A Deep Layer And Weakening Low Level Convergence.

There May Be A Narrow Window Of Opportunity For A Few Marginally Severe Tstms To Evolve Across Portions Of Swrn Ok/Nwrn Tx By Late Afternoon Into The Evening Hours But Forecast Soundings Exhibit Profiles That Favor Weak Buoyancy Within Stronger Warm Advection Regime...And Steepening Lapse Rates Later In The Evening Hours After Ascent Has Translated Downstream.

There Is Considerable Doubt That Meaningful Deep Convection Will Evolve Along The Advancing Front Across This Region During The Overnight Hours To Utilize The Mid Level Cooling.

For This Reason Have Not Introduced Low Severe Probs As Primary Region For Ascent Will Have Translated Well Downstream Before Mid Level Cooling Contributes To Sufficient Lapse Rates Necessary For Robust Updrafts.
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Nov 6-10 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Models Are In Reasonably Good Agreement Regarding The Evolution Of Long Wave Trough As It Progresses Across The Rockies/Plains Into The Ms Valley During The Day4 Period.

This Feature Is Expected To Induce A Considerable Amount Of Near Frontal Precipitation/Convection That Should Limit Lapse Rates/ Instability Within An Otherwise Strongly Sheared Environment.

While Significant Boundary Layer Moisture Should Advance Nwd Across Ern Tx/La...Forecast Soundings Exhibit Very Poor Lapse Rates And Thermodynamic Profiles That Do Not Yield Much Cape.

At This Time Organized Severe Thunderstorms Are Not Expected Ahead Of Cold Front As It Moves Across The Plains/Ms Valley Into The Oh Valley/Gulf States.


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