Severe Weather Threat thru May 31

Sat May 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Srn High Plains...

Showers And Widespread Thunderstorms Should Develop Across The Central And Southern Plains Saturday.

Stronger Storms May Produce Severe Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts -- Particularly Across Portions Of The Southern High Plains Vicinity.

Farther North...Isolated Thunderstorms...A Few Strong...May Develop Across The Northern High Plains Area.

Elsewhere...Non-Severe Storms Are Expected Over Portions Of The Rockies...Parts Of The Southeast...And Portions Of The Northeast U.S. And Mid-Atlantic Region.

Blocking Pattern Will Persist Through Saturday With Swrn U.S. Cutoff
Upper Low Drifting Slowly East...Likely Becoming Centered Over The
Srn Rockies By 12z Sunday.

Farther East An Upper Ridge Will Prevail Over The Ms Valley Region With A Downstream Trough Along The Ern U.S. Coast.

At The Surface A Quasi-Stationary Front Should Remain Across The Sern States...Extending Nwwd As A Warm Front Through The Mid-Ms Valley And Cntrl Plains Region.

A Cold Front Will Advance Through The Nrn High Plains.

Srn High Plains And Srn Rockies Area...

Sely Low-Level Flow Will Prevail East Of The Rockies Maintaining
Upper 50s To Low 60s Boundary-Layer Dewpoints Over The Srn High
Plains.

Scattered Convection Developing Friday Evening Will Likely Persist Into Early Saturday.

However...Much Of This Activity Is Expected To Weaken As It Shifts Newd Into Wrn Tx During The Morning.

Storms Will Likely Redevelop Along And East Of The Higher Terrain As
The Boundary Layer Destabilizes During The Day And As Another In A
Series Of Vorticity Maxima Rotate Through Base Of The Upper Low.

Wind Profiles And Vertical Shear Will Strengthen As The Upper Low
Inches Ewd With Effective Shear Increasing To 40+ Kt From Nm Into
Wrn Tx.

This Will Likely Support Supercell Modes...But Some Storms May Also Evolve Into Clusters/Lines.

Large Hail And Damaging Wind Will Be The Main Threats During The Afternoon And Evening.

Modest Low-Level Hodographs Will Remain A Limiting Factor For A More Robust Tornado Threat...But Isolated Tornadoes Cannot Be Ruled Out...Especially In Window From Late Afternoon Into Early Evening From Swrn Tx Into Sern Nm As The Llj Increases And Before The Boundary Layer Stabilizes.

Nrn High Plains...

Pre-Frontal Warm Sector Is Expected To Become Moderately Unstable
With Diabatic Warming...Steep Lapse Rates And Modest Low-Level
Moisture Supporting 1000-1500 J/Kg Mlcape Across Ern Mt.

Storms Are Expected To Develop Along And Ahead Of The Front.

Vertical Shear Will Remain Weak...But Inverted-V Thermodynamic Profiles Will Support A Threat Of Locally Strong To Damaging Wind Gusts From Late Afternoon Through Early Evening.

Coverage Of Any Severe Events Is Expected To Remain Too Isolated For More Than 5% Probabilities.

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Sun May 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Srn High Plains...

Scattered Severe Storms With Isolated Large Hail And Wind Damage
Will Likely Develop Across Parts Of The Southern High Plains Sunday
Afternoon And Evening.

Other Marginally Severe Storms Should Develop Across Parts Of The Northern Plains And Across Parts Of The Southeastern U.S. Sunday Afternoon And Evening.

Srn High Plains...

An Upper-Level Low Will Move From The Four Corners Region Ewd Into The Srn Rockies On Sunday As Southwest Mid-Level Flow Remains In Place Across The Srn High Plains.

At The Sfc...A Lee Trough Will Be Located Across Ern Nm With Backed Sely Winds Across Much Of The Srn High Plains.

Sfc Dewpoints In The 55 To 60 F Range Should Allow For The Development Of Moderate Instability By Afternoon.

As In Previous Days...Thunderstorms Should Initiate During The Late Afternoon Along The Wrn Edge Of Moderate Instability With Several Convective Clusters Moving Ewd Across The Region.

Forecast Soundings At 00z/Mon From Amarillo Tx Swd To Midland Tx
Show Mlcape In The 1200 To 1800 J/Kg Range.

In Addition...0-6 Km Shear Is Forecast To Be Near 40 Kt With 850 To 500 Mb Lapse Rates Of 7.5 C/Km.

This Environment Should Support The Development Of Supercells With Large Hail.

The Hail Threat Should Be Greatest With Cells That Remain Discrete.

Cells That Organize Into Short-Line Segments May Have Wind Damage As The Primary Threat.

Nrn Plains...

West To Southwest Mid-Level Flow Should Remain In Place Across The Nrn Plains Sunday.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Will Advance Sewd Across The Dakotas.

Ahead Of The Boundary...Sfc Dewpoints Should Be In The Upper 50s And Lower 60s F...Resulting In The Development Of Moderate Instability By Afternoon.

Isolated To Scattered Thunderstorms Should Initiate Along The Boundary During The Late Afternoon.

Although Forecast Soundings Show Somewhat Weak Deep-Layer
Shear Profiles In The 20 To 25 Kt Range...0-3 Km Lapse Rates Are
Forecast To Be Quite Steep With Values Around 8.0 C/Km.

This Should Support Strong Thunderstorms Capable Of Producing Marginally Severe Wind Gusts.

Hail Will Also Be Possible With The More Intense Updrafts.

Tn Valley/Ern Gulf Coast States/Nrn-Cntrl Fl...

A Quasi-Stationary Front Should Be Located From The Tn Valley Swd
Into The Ern Gulf Coast States.

Sfc Dewpoints Are Forecast To Be In The Mid 60s F Along The Boundary...Enabling The Development Of Moderate Instability By Afternoon.

Although Large-Scale Forcing Should Remain Weak...Low-Level Convergence Along The Boundary Should Result In Isolated Thunderstorm Development.

Due To The Relatively Weak Shear Profiles And Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates...Strong Wind Gusts Should Be The Primary Threat.

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Mon May 26 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Srn Plains...

Scattered Severe Thunderstorms With Isolated Large Hail And Wind
Damage Are Expected To Develop Across Parts Of The Southern Plains Monday Afternoon And Evening.

Other Marginally Severe Thunderstorms Should Develop Across Parts Of The Upper Midwest And Eastern Gulf Coast States.

Srn Plains...

An Upper-Level Low Is Forecast To Move Slowly From The Srn Rockies Into The Srn High Plains On Monday.

At The Sfc...A Trough Should Be In Place Across West Tx With Sely Flow Located Across Much Of The Srn Plains.

As In Previous Days...Sfc Dewpoints Should Be In The Upper 50s And Lower 60s F Across The Srn High Plains Where Pockets Of Moderate Instability Are Forecast To Develop By Monday Afternoon.

Thunderstorms Should Initiate Along The Wrn Edge Of Moderate
Instability By Late Afternoon With Several Clusters Of Storms Moving
Ewd Across The Slight Risk Area.

Forecast Soundings At 00z/Tue For San Angelo Tx And Abilene Tx Show Sbcape In The 1200 To 1500 J/Kg Range With 0-6 Km Shear Of 35 To 40 Kt.

This Should Be Enough To Support The Development Of Supercells
With Large Hail...But The Potential Should Be Dependent Upon Where
The Greatest Instability Develops.

The Nam Shows Moderate Instability Along With The Steepest Lapse Rates In The Srn Part Of The Slight Risk Area Suggesting The Threat For Large Hail Will Be Greatest There.

In Areas Where Multicells Can Organize Into Short Line Segments... Then A Wind Damage Threat Will Also Exist.

The Severe Threat May Be More Isolated Than On Previous Days... Especially Across The Nrn Half Of The Slight Risk Where Slightly Less Instability Is Forecast.

Upper Midwest...

An Upper-Level Ridge Is Forecast To Amplify Some Across The Upper
Midwest On Monday As A Cold Front Moves Sewd Into The Nrn Plains.

Although Large-Scale Ascent Is Forecast To Be Weak...Low-Level
Convergence Along The Boundary Should Enable Isolated Storms To
Initiate During The Afternoon.

Sfc Dewpoints Near 60 F...Moderate Instability And Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates Should Make Marginally Severe Wind Gusts Possible With The Stronger Thunderstorms.

Hail May Also Occur Where Cells Have Access To Locally Maximized Instability.

Ern Gulf Coast States...

An Upper-Level Ridge Will Remain In Place Across The Oh And Tn
Valleys On Monday.

At The Sfc...A Trough Is Forecast To Be In Place From The Mid-Atlantic Swwd Across Carolinas Into The Srn Appalachian Mtns.

Thunderstorms May Develop In The Vicinity Of The Trough As Sfc
Temps Warm Up During The Day.

Sfc Dewpoints In The Mid To Upper 60s F And Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates May Enable The Stronger Multicell Line Segments To Produce Marginally Severe Wind Gusts.

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May 27-31 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Ecmwf And Gfs Solutions Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period In Good
Agreement With An Upper-Level Low Over The Srn Plains.

Strong To Potentially Severe Thunderstorms Will Be Possible South Of The Upper-Level Low From Se Ok Swd Across Ecntrl Tx Tuesday Afternoon And Evening/Day 4.

The Models Move The Upper-Level Low Sewd Into The Arklatex Region On Wednesday/Day 5.

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms May Again Develop South Of The Upper-Level Low Across Parts Of East Tx...La And Ar Wednesday Afternoon And Evening.

On Thursday/Day 6...Model Solutions Diverge Sharply But The Ecmwf And Gfs Both Weaken The Upper-Level Low With The Gfs Dissipating The Upper-Level System.

If The Ecmwf Solution Is Closer To Being Correct...Then Severe Thunderstorms Would Again Be Possible In The Arklatex And Lower Ms Valley Regions Thursday Afternoon And Evening.

Beyond Day 6...Differences In The Model Solutions Substantially Increase Forecast Uncertainty.

Although Severe Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Each Day To The South Of The Upper-Level Low From The Early To Mid-Week Time Frame...Predictability Remains Too Low To Forecast An Enhanced Severe Threat Area.


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