Severe Weather Threat thru May 1

Thu Apr 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Arklatex Ene to Lwr Oh...Lwr Tn...Lwr Ms Vlys...

Scattered Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected From Southern Missouri Through Arkansas Into Northern Louisiana This
Afternoon...With The Activity Then Spreading East Into Parts Of The
Lower Ohio...Lower Tennessee...And Lower Mississippi Valleys This
Evening Through Early Friday. Damaging Winds And Large Hail Will Be The Primary Threats.

Progressive and Moderately Amplified Pattern Will Persist Over The Lwr 48 Through Fri...Downstream From Broad...Amplifying Trough In The Ne Pacific.

Shortwave Trough That Crossed The Swrn U.S. Yesterday Is Now Over Nw Ok. The Compact...Fairly Potent System Should Continue Generally Ene Into Mo/Nrn Ar This Eve...And Into Ind/Cntrl Ky Early Fri ...As It Assumes A Slight Negative Tilt.

Elongated Sfc Low Now Over Ern Ks/Ne Ok...Largely An Ewd-Displaced Lee Trough...Should Consolidate And Deepen Over Cntrl Mo Later Today...And Over Cntrl Portions Of Il And Ind Tngt/Early Fri...As Upr Vort Overtakes The Circulation And Associated Cold Front
Trailing Sw Into E Tx.

The Cold Front...And Strengthening Confluence Axes To Its East...Will Serve To Focus Low-Lvl Uplift And Potential Svr Tstm Development Later Today Through Tngt In Moistening Low-Lvl Environment Over Srn Mo...Ar...And Perhaps Ne Tx Ewd Into Parts Of The Lwr Oh...Lwr Tn...And Lwr Ms Vlys.

Ozarks/Arklatex Ewd to Lwr Oh...Lwr Tn...Lwr Ms Vlys...

A Concentrated Band Of Strong Dcva/Large-Scale Ascent Will Track E
Across Much Of Ar And Mo Today...And The Lwr Oh And Tn Vlys Tngt...
Ahead Of Progressive Ok Upr Vort.

At The Same Time...Associated Band Of 40-60 Kt 700-500 Mb Flow Will Overspread The Region...Creating A Wind Environment Quite Favorable For Svr Storms/Supercells.

Moisture Initially Will Be Somewhat Limited...Especially E Of The
Ozarks/Ouachitas. But Moisture Will Increase Nwd Through The Lwr Ms Vly Later Today Into Tngt...And Likely Will Become Sufficient For
Svr Storms...One Or Two Of Which Could Yield A Tornado In Addition
To Large Hail/Dmgg Wind.

Low-Lvl Moist Axis Ahead Of Cold Front Attm Extends From E Cntrl Tx
Nne Into Ern Ok/Se Ks/Sw Mo/Wrn Ar.

Storms Should Continue To Form Within This Corridor...Both Along And Ahead Of Front...Through The Aftn As Dcva And Modest Sfc Heating Further Destabilize Region.

Steep Mid-Lvl Lapse Rates And Strengthening /30-40 Kt/ Swly Deep Shear May Support A Few Storms With Svr Hail And Wind.

A Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out...Especially In Far Ern Ok And Ar Later Today...Where Wind Profiles Should Exhibit The Maximum Deep Veering Amidst Sfc Dewpoints In The Upr 50s To Low 60s F.

Farther E...Other Tstms Are Expected To Form/Intensify Along And
Ahead Of Pre-Frontal Confluence Axis Now Over Wrn Ar.

Strong Sfc Heating Will Occur Ahead Of This Axis Over Se Mo...Ern Ar...And Nrn La Ewd Into Wrn Ky...Wrn Tn...And Nrn Ms Through The Aftn...Where /Especially Later Today Into Tngt/ Veering And Strengthening 850 Mb Winds Will Substantially Increase Moisture Inflow Across Region.

Coupled With Strengthening Deep Shear /500 Mb Flow Increasing To Aoa 50 Kts/...Setup Could Yield A Sizable N-S Sqln.

Embedded Supercells And Sustained Circulations In The Line Could Produce A Couple Tornadoes In Addition To Dmgg Wind And Svr Hail.

This Activity May Reach As Far E As Nw Al...Middle Tn...And Cntrl Ky Early Fri.

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Fri Apr 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for parts of Sern Va And Ern Nc...

Isolated Strong/Locally Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop During The Afternoon Across Parts Of Southeast Virginia And Into Eastern North Carolina...And Possibly Into Northern South
Carolina...Where Hail And Locally Damaging Winds Will Be Possible.

Amplification Of The Upper Flow Pattern Is Forecast To Occur Day
2...As An Upper Trough Just Off The W Coast At The Start Of The
Period Digs/Expands Sewd Into The Wrn U.S. With Time.

As This Occurs...A Downstream Ridge Is Forecast To Amplify As It Shifts Into The Central U.S./Plains Region.

Finally...A Short-Wave Trough/Vort Max Will Shift From The Lower Oh/Tn Valleys Early In The Period To The Mid-Atlantic Coast After Dark.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Cross The Wrn U.S./Great Basin
Ahead Of The Digging Upper System...While A Much Weaker Front
Crosses The Appalachians During The Afternoon Before Moving Offshore Overnight.

Sern Va Swd Across The Ern Nc Vicinity...

Afternoon Heating Of A Relatively Moist Boundary Layer Will Contribute To Increasing Cape Development Across Ern Nc And
Vicinity...Ahead Of The Advancing Cold Front And Associated Upper
Vort Max.

As This Occurs...A Diurnal Increase In Afternoon Convective Coverage/Intensity Is Expected...With Updraft Organization Aided By Ample Shear On Account Of 40 To 50 Kt Wlys At Mid-Levels Spreading Across This Region On The Srn Fringe Of The Upper System.

Along With Risk For Hail With Stronger Cells...Locally Damaging Winds Will Also Be Possible -- Particularly If Some Upscale Growth Into Small Lines/Clusters Can Occur -- As Appears Possible Attm.

The Severe Risk Will Diminish Through The Evening...As The Airmass Gradually Stabilizes And Convection Moves Offshore.

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Sat Apr 26 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Central And Southern Plains...

Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop Along A
Dryline Across Portions Of Kansas...Oklahoma...And Parts Of West
Texas.

Very Large Hail...And Possibly Tornadoes...Can Be Expected.

Central And Southern Plains...

Strong Mid-Level Speed Max Is Forecast To Round The Base Of A
Progressive Trough Along The Swrn U.S./Mexican Border Early Saturday Before Shifting Into Nm By 27/00z.

This Feature Will Then Eject Into The Cntrl High Plains Of Western Ks Overnight...Increasing To 80kt+ At 500mb.

Intense 12-Hr Mid-Level Height Falls...Approaching 200m...Will Develop Across The High Plains Centered On Sern Co.

As Upper Trough Shifts Into The Srn Rockies...Sfc Low Will Deepen
Over Ern Co And A Well-Defined Lee Trough Will Extend Swd Into Nrn
Mexico.

Intense Heating Is Expected Along This Trough During The Day And A Dryline Should Mix Into The Ern Tx Panhandle By 21z.

While Warm Sector Boundary Layer Moisture Is Expected To Gradually
Increase Across The Srn/Cntrl Plains Over The Next Few Days It
Appears Dryline Convection May Initially Ingest 50s Sfc Dew Points
As Temperatures Rise Through The 80s...To Perhaps Near 90f Farther South Across The Edwards Plateau.

Convective Temperatures Should Be Breached By 21z And Sct Supercells Are Expected To Develop Along The Boundary.

This Activity Will Initially Be Driven By Diabatic Heating As Large-Scale Forcing Associated With Approaching Speed Max Will Lag This Corridor Of Initiation Until Well After Dark.

Delayed Large-Scale Support May Limit The Number Of Storms That Ultimately Evolve Along The Dryline.

Convection That Develops During The Late Afternoon Will Do So Along A Narrow Corridor Of 3000 J/Kg Sbcape And Should Mature Into The Early Evening Hours As Vertical Shear Increases From The West.

Supercells With Very Large Hail...Greater Than 2 Inches...Are
Expected.

As Tstms Shift East And Boundary Layer Cools Slightly There May Be A Propensity For Cloud Bases To Lower And Take Advantage Of Lower 60s Sfc Dew Points.

As A Result...Tornado Threat Should Increase During The Early Evening Hours Before Activity Decouples From The Boundary Layer.

With Large Scale Forcing Expected To Eject Into The Plains Overnight
There May Be Convective Redevelopment Along The Dryline As It Begins To Surge Across Swrn Ks/Wrn Ok/Nwrn Tx.

Severe Probabilities May Be Increased Across This Region If Mid-Level Speed Max/Forcing Overspreads The Dryline At A More Favorable Time Diurnally.

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Apr 27-May 1 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Significant Multi-Day Severe Event Expected Across Portions Of The Central/Southern Plains And Ms Valley Sunday...And Ms Valley/Cntrl Gulf States On Monday...Strong Tornadoes Are Possible...

Both The Ecmwf/Gfs Are In General Agreement Regarding The Evolution Of Upper Low As It Progresses Into The Plains Sunday... Then Into The Ms Valley Monday.

After Initial Speed Max Ejects Into The Cntrl Plains Sunday... Substantial Mid-Level Flow Develops Within The Base Of The Trough Over Tx And Spreads Across The Lower Ms Valley Into The Ncntrl Gulf States/Tn Valley.

Ecmwf Is More Suppressed With This Stronger Flow Than The Gfs But The Idea That Strong Flow Should Overspread A Buoyant Airmass Both Days Remains.

Models Continue To Surge The Dryline Across The Plains Early In The
Period With Both Agreeing That Significant Boundary Layer Drying
Will Spread East Of I-35 Corridor Fairly Early Sunday.

Given The Mid-Level Jet That Ejects Into The Cntrl Plains Early... Severe Thunderstorms Should Evolve From Sern Neb...Across Ern Ks/Ok Into Nern Tx Before Spreading Into Wrn Mo/Ar/Nwrn La.

Deep Sfc Cyclone Will Gradually Shift East Across The Cntrl Plains
And Arcing Frontal Position At 12z Monday Should Extend Along/Near
The Ks/Mo Border...Swd Into Sern Tx.

Severe Thunderstorms Should Redevelop Across The Warm Sector As 80kt 500mb Flow Ejects Across The Lower Ms Valley Into Wrn Tn During The Day.

A Few Strong Tornadoes May Be Noted With Supercells That Develop Along/Ahead Of Dryline/Pacific Front Both Sunday And Monday.


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