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Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 9

Sun Mar 2 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Parts Of E Tx...La...Srn Ar And Scntrl Ms...

A Few Changes Have Been Made To The Outlook For This Issuance.

The First Change Is To Add Parts Of Far Se Tx Into The Slight Risk Area.

A Cap Is Currently In Place Across Se Tx.

However...The Wrf-Hrrr Weakens The Cap Late This Afternoon And Develops Convection Early This Evening Across Far Se Tx Where Instability And Low-Level Lapse Rates Could Be Sufficient For An Isolated Wind Damage Threat.

The Second Change Is To Add A Thunder Area Across Parts Of Se Nm And West Tx Where Convection Is Developing Near A Shortwave Trough In A Corridor Of Enhanced Low-Level Convergence.

The Wrf-Hrrr Suggests This Convection Will Persist Into Early Evening...Moving Storms Sewd To Just West Of Lubbock Tx.

The Third Change Is To Add Parts Of The Sern Tx Panhandle Into Thunder Where Convective Sleet/Snow Showers May Produce A Few Lightning Strikes This Afternoon.

Prev Discussion…

A Progressive...Split-Flow Pattern Will Continue Through The D1
Period With The Primary Feature Of Interest Being A Srn-Stream
Short-Wave Trough Which Will Translate From The Srn High Plains To
The Lower Oh/Lower Ms Valley Regions By 3/12z.

In The Low Levels...Mid-Morning Mesoanalysis Showed A Cold Front From Srn New England Swwd Through The Srn Oh/Tn Valleys To A Weak Wave Over The Arklatex...And Then Swwd Into The Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Expect This Frontal Wave To Develop Generally Ewd Along The Southward-Advancing Front Into The Srn Appalachians By Late
Tonight...While The Trailing Extension Of The Cold Front Accelerates
Sewd Into The Lower Ms Valley.

Ern Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley This Afternoon Through Tonight...

12z Sounding Data Ahead Of The Cold Front Sampled A Seasonably Moist Air Mass /I.E. Lowest 100-Mb Mean-Mixing Ratios Of 13-15 G Per Kg/ Surmounted By A Pronounced Eml And Associated Cap...Yielding Mucape Of 1500-3000+ J/Kg.

However...Given That The Strongest Dcva Associated With The Migratory Short-Wave Trough Will Remain Largely Displaced To The North Of The Front...And Widespread Clouds Will Reduce The Amount Of Pbl Heating Ahead Of The Front...Concerns Exist With Regard To The Amount Of Surface-Based Storm Development That
Will Actually Occur.

Latest Model Guidance Suggests That Elevated Tstms Will Increase In Coverage This Afternoon Into Evening From Ern Tx Into Srn Ar/Nrn La Where Isentropic Upglide Along A 40-45 Kt Llj Becomes Colocated With The Srn Fringe Of Dcva Attendant To The Short-Wave Trough.

Based On The Environment Sampled By The 12z Drt Sounding... Intense Updrafts Are Possible With A Risk For Severe Hail.

Surface-Based Storm Development --If Occurring At All-- Will Likely Be Delayed Until Later This Evening Into Tonight Over The Lower Ms Valley Where Convection-Allowing Models Suggest The Evolution Of A
Narrow...Forced Line Of Convection.

Should This Scenario Unfold...The Presence Of A Relatively Strong Wswly Deep-Layer Wind Field Would Support An Increased Risk For Locally Damaging Wind Gusts.

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Mon Mar 3 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Will Move Across The Tn Valley On Monday As A
Cold Front Advances Sewd Across The Ern Gulf Coast States.

Isolated Thunderstorms May Persist Along A Front Through Midday As The Boundary Moves Sewd Across Srn Al...Srn Ga And The Fl Panhandle.

Further To The West In The Srn Plains...Isolated Thunderstorms May
Also Develop In Scntrl Tx By Monday Evening As An Upper-Level Trough Approaches The Region From The West.

A Few Lightning Strikes May Also Occur Across Parts Of The Pacific Northwest As Mid-Level Moisture Increases And Lapse Rates Steepen In Association With An Approaching Shortwave Trough.

None Of The Thunderstorm Activity Across The Conus Is Expected To Be Severe Monday Or Monday Night.

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Tue Mar 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Modest Warm Advection And Elevated Moisture Transport Above A
Sfc-Based Cold Dome Will Be Reinforced Across Parts Of Cntrl/Srn Tx
On D3/Tue In Advance Of A Mid-Level Cyclonic Perturbation That Is
Forecast To Amplify Over The Plains.

Isolated Storms Could Affect Portions Of Cntrl/Srn Tx In This Regime ... And Perhaps Spread Across Far Swrn La.

The Limited Strength Of Deep Ascent And Only Modest Degree Of Moisture Return Should Prevent Greater Thunderstorm Coverage And Keep Storms Below Svr Limits.

Also...A Few Sporadic Lightning Strikes May Be Possible From The
Pacific Nw And Nrn Ca To The Nrn Great Basin In Association With
Moist Wly Flow Aloft.

With Very Limited Buoyancy...And With Stronger Deep Ascent Remaining Off The Pacific Coast...Storm Coverage Should Be Too Limited For General Thunder Delineation.

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Mar 5-9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Florida Peninsula And Keys -- D5/Thu...

The Consensus Amongst The Latest Global Model Guidance And Related Ensemble Solutions Continues To Bolster Confidence That Severe Thunderstorms Could Be Possible For The Florida Peninsula And Keys. Present Indications Are That This Potential Would Be Maximized On D5/Thu.

This Will Occur As The Base Of A Shortwave Trough Digging Over The Plains Eventually Overlies Ample Low-Level Baroclinicity Over The Gulf Of Mexico...Breeding Strong Cyclogenesis Over The Gulf
For The Middle Of This Week.

The Deep Meridional Flow Component Within The Ensuing Warm Sector Will Transport Abundant Tropospheric Moisture/High Boundary-Layer Theta-E Northward.

Strong Unidirectional Wind Profiles Within The Warm Sector May Foster One Or Multiple Squall Lines Crossing The Peninsula And
Keys...With Damaging Winds And Perhaps A Few Tornadoes Of Concern.

While Buoyancy Will Likely Be Limited By Only Modest Mid-Level Lapse Rates...The Overlap Of A Warm/Moist Boundary Layer With Strong Low-Level/Deep Speed Shear Could Enhance The Svr Potential.

This Would Especially By The Case If A Strong Mid-Level Dry Intrusion
Coils Around The Srn Semicircle Of The Parent Deep Extratropical
Cyclone Enhancing Potential Instability...As Some Model Solutions
Indicate.

However...The Delineation Of Any Aoa-30-Percent Svr Thunderstorm
Probabilities Has Been Withheld At This Time Owing To Still-Ongoing
Differences Amongst Various Model Solutions Regarding The Details Of The Cyclogenesis Process And The Related Evolution Of Buoyancy And Wind Fields.

Should Models Continue To Converge On A Solution Supporting An Enhanced Svr Threat...Probabilities May Be Needed In Subsequent Outlooks.


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